A Shutdown Would Be a Gift for DOGE – Top 3 Takeaways – March 14th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Shutdown
DOGE has already saved you $714.29 in annualized future federal income taxes. You’re welcome. Has anything changed in your life because of DOGE’s cuts? Would you have even known that DOGE has cut $115 billion across 22 federal government agencies if I hadn’t told you? This is the point. Elon Musk has estimated that we could cut 30% of the federal government without having a negative impact on the lives of the average American. To date, for as effective as DOGE has been, they’re only 5.8% of the way there. Enter today’s debate about whether there’s to be a partial government shutdown. To quickly catch you up to speed...The House of Representatives passed a spending bill earlier this week that would fund the federal government through the end of the fiscal year in September – with $7 billion in cuts, a pittance – over previously agreed to spending levels. In order for the bill to pass in the Senate it needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster, to be brought up for a vote. Democrats have threatened to block a vote on the bill which would trigger a partial government shutdown at midnight tonight. But here’s the thing. That could be a great thing...especially in the era of DOGE. Consider this. During a partial government shutdown what happens? For starters...the term government shutdown is inaccurate. The federal government doesn't shutdown. It prioritizes. During a partial federal government shutdown there's discretion regarding what stays open and what doesn't. But there’s one area that isn’t open to interpretation. What are considered essential services. More on those in a moment. "Shutdowns" are largely a modern phenomenon due to increased partisanship - it's a byproduct of the budget process created in 1976. Since 1976, there have been 22 "partial government shutdowns", eleven have reached the stage where certain agencies and their employees are furloughed. The government, even during a so-called shutdown, doesn't work on pay-go, or a revenue in, revenue out approach - we're still accumulating debt and that's because... The Office of Management and Budget determines what remains open and what doesn't with the President of the United States being the final arbiter of what’s considered essential - with a few exceptions. The average impact during shutdowns historically has only been felt by 15% to 20% of the 430 federal agencies. Or in other words, about half of what Elon Musk has already said should go. Let's hang on to that one for a moment.
We've averaged some type of partial government shutdown every two to three years since 1976. They’ve often proved instructive as you can get a sense of what the real priorities of an administration are, in addition to the extent they’re interested in playing politics. An example would be President Obama shutting down National Parks during 2013’s partial government shutdown. Records show it actually was more expensive to close the parks down than it was to operate them. It was a clear political maneuver to attempt to pressure Congressional Republicans.
Takeaway #2: Less federal government? Sign me up
Maybe there will be a partial government shutdown this weekend, maybe there won’t. But if there is, here’s what you should know. 1) The sun will rise 2) The only way you’ll even know is because of what you would hear in the news. In the past I’ve said that the only lament that I’ve had is that none of them were permanent. But now, with DOGE in toe, just think about how instructive it would be for Elon and team DOGE to see how easy it is for the country to continue with only “essential” services and also importantly to be able to instruct President Trump on what some of the priorities should be. We shouldn’t lament 15% less federal government for a short period of time...we should embrace it and make it permanent...and then keep going to downsize the size of our bloated bureaucracy to that of something that we could actually afford. Which, by the way if we did, there would never be another government shutdown again. It’s a permanent solution to this problem. In the past partial government shutdowns have resulted in more expense because government employees who were furloughed have been brought back and with back pay. This time they could be shown the door and help DOGE do its job with even greater efficiency than has already happened. I have two very basic questions that should transcend partisan politics. During the most recent threat of a partial government shutdown during the Biden administration I had this to say: For those who are concerned about a partial government shutdown... Should the federal government live within its means? Should we really be operating 86 “non-essential” federal government agencies (almost all of which no one others than those who work in them could name) with the country $33 trillion in debt and growing? The only difference? Now the debt is at $36.6 trillion and climbing. Sign me up for the partial government shutdown...and let DOGE make it permanent.
Takeaway #3: What will playout today
Alas I’m willing to bet that there won’t be a partial government shutdown today because after huffing and puffing a blowing a lot of smoke Democrats aren’t just concerned about being “blamed” for a partial government shutdown for blocking a vote on a bill that’s already passed the House, they’re likely aware of everything I just said. Democrats have dedicated their early Trump 2.0 existence to being opposed to all things Trump – especially DOGE. The last thing they’ll want to do is to help DOGE do its job. What you’ll see is that the vote will happen, and the Republican’s plan will pass, because Democrats are likely to see the bigger picture I just laid out.