Q&A – Are Illegal Aliens Hiding or Self Deporting?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s entry: Submitted via talkback: I think the drop in crime, not only because of Donald Trump being president, but because illegals are hiding. If they're caught in crimes, they'll be taken and deported. So I think the dropping crimes in big cities, not California, but in cities unsanctuary cities, has dropped because the illegals are hiding so that they don't get found.
Bottom Line: Today’s note is in response to my latest research on the topic of non-citizen crime which I brought to you last week. As presented... How much less (non-citizen crime) have we had since January 20th? Reporting across the state at this point in the year is sparse but where it’s available the results are significant. In Miami Dade crime is 18% lower year over year. Ditto in Orlando – 18% less crime there too. In Tallahassee crime is approximately 40% lower year-over-year. We’ll likely see similar trends when crime stats are more broadly reported across the state.
In order to address today’s question – let’s broaden this out a bit. Nationally we see the same challenges deriving crime data in the middle of a year, as we did in Florida. Most law enforcement agencies don’t provide monthly crime stats – but some, often the largest agencies, do. Here’s what we know nationally as of today. Since January 20th...
Estimated U.S. decline in crime from January 20th through July (2025):
- Sexual assaults: 10%
- Property crime: 11%
- Violent crime: 12%
- Homicides: 20%
Here again, we see double digit declines in all crime types. As I’d illustrated and have discussed numerous times, by the end of the Biden administration, the non-citizen crime rate had risen by greater than 600% and non-citizens were committing crimes at a rate that was greater than 900% higher than legal citizens.
It’s evident that the Trump administration's policy reversals have netted immediate impacts in communities throughout Florida and across the country. This takes us to the interesting dynamic as to whether illegal aliens are hiding, self-deporting, or perhaps a mix of both?
As I’ve reported, recent data suggests self-deportations have been running at a rate that’s close to 10-1 what the actual deportation rate has been. Friday’s jobs report, which I discuss in today’s Top 3 Takeaways, only further evidences this as the likely case. It appears that self-deportations as opposed to hiding is resulting in the changes in crime we’re seeing due to these three reasons:
- Illegal Aliens have been most likely to commit crimes, and the crime rate is down double-digit percentages
- There are now 1.2 million fewer ‘foreign born’ workers in the workforce than in January
- Two new studies confirm my research that self-deportations are running at a rate that’s “5 to 10 self-deportations for every formal deportation”
If illegal aliens were leaving the workforce and hiding, we’d almost certainly see crime rates rise. That crime rates are off double-digit percentages along with the workforce data, suggests relocations outside of the U.S. is the largest driving force behind what’s happening. There’s also every indication that this trend will continue for the foreseeable future.