Growth of Autism Diagnoses Over Time
Bottom Line: On Monday the Trump administration announced a study showing a potential link between the use of acetaminophen by pregnant women and infants may to a higher risk for autism. Notably, Tylenol, which is the leading drug brand, holds only 35% U.S. market share of the greater than $10 billion market.
As noted by the president, Autism Spectrum Disorder diagnoses have risen dramatically over the past 50+ years, from rare occurrences in the mid-20th century to affecting about 1 in 31 U.S. children today. Up until now the increase has been largely attributed to expanded diagnostic criteria, greater awareness, and improved screening. Data primarily from the CDC's Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network tracks 8-year-olds in the U.S.
Historical Prevalence Trends
Decade/Year
Prevalence (per 1,000 children)
Approximate Rate (1 in X)
Notes
1960s–1970s
0.5
1 in 2,000
Early estimates for "classic" autism only.
1980s
1.0
1 in 1,000
Broader recognition begins.
2000
6.7
1 in 150
First ADDM report.
2010
14.7
1 in 68
-
2020
27.6
1 in 36
-
2022
32.2
1 in 31
Latest ADDM data (3.2% of 8-year-olds).
Key Insights
- Overall Growth: From 2000–2022, diagnoses increased ~380%, with a 175% rise in overall U.S. rates from 2011–2022 (2.3 to 6.3 per 1,000).
- Demographics: Higher in boys (4:1 ratio); recent gains in female, adult, and minority diagnoses due to better access.
- Global Context: Median global rate ~1% (1 in 100) in recent studies.
Clearly the rapid rise in diagnosed cases has shown no signs of slowing down hence the administration's emphasis on seeking the solutions to combat the rapidly rising issue. Hopefully they’ve identified a way to meaningfully curb the trend.