Inside South Florida – what our primary votes said about swing districts

Inside South Florida – what our primary votes say about our political preferences 

Bottom Line: Yesterday, my first review of voter turnout showed that approximately 109,000 more Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats on Tuesday. That’s a pretty impressive story in a state that has more registered Democrats than Republicans. That’s also good enough to suggest that the only blue wave in Florida for now is still available only at the beach. But those numbers don’t tell the South Florida story and the South Florida story is an important one that has the potential to determine how Congress is controlled in 2019. First, if we look at the Governor's race the tri-county areas broke for the winners. Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis both won all-three counties.  

In a separate story on Thursday, I discussed the district 18, 26 and 27 races. Three of the races that are among the most vulnerable in the country that are likely to be a significant cog in the story of who controls the house next year.  

Looking at voter turnout for Congressional candidates in these districts the survey says: 

  • District 18: 13,450 more Republicans voted than Democrats  
  • District 26: 2,043 more Republicans voted than Democrats 
  • District 27: 5,306 more Democrats voted than Republicans 

These numbers don’t factor in how non-party affiliated voters will break in November but among the partisans the first sign is that Republicans are potentially well positioned to retain Brian Mast's and Carlos Curbelo’s seats but lose the seat being vacated by the retiring Ilena Ros-Lehtinen 

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