Is Kavanaugh the inflection point after all?

Is Kavanaugh the inflection point after all? 

Excerpt: When the fight over allegations of sexual abuse by Trump  Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh began, the Democrats seemed confident they could fire up their base for the November midterm elections. 

Instead they seem to be firing up the Republican base. An NPR/PBSNewshour/Marist poll showed that "the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared," according to an NPR report. 

As South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham put it, "Whether you're a Trump Republican, a Bush Republican, a McCain Republican, a libertarian or a vegetarian -- you're pissed. I've never seen the Republican Party so unified as I do right now. The defining issue in 2018 has changed. It's about this."

Bottom Line: Over the past week and a half, as I’ve watched data begin to shift toward Republicans generally in this cycle, I’ve been thinking and last week started talking about whether we’re at a historic inflection point. As I’ve illustrated throughout this year in my midterm election updates, there’s a 92% chance Democrats gain this year. Simply an average midterm cycle would net Democrats full control of Congress. Yet, the Senate is all but certain to remain in Republican control one month in advance of Election Day and the House is a toss-up that leans towards Democrats. In other words, the worst outcome for Republicans already appears to be a better than average midterm cycle. For that reason the prospects of discussing a possible inflection point are legitimized.    

If there’s a 92% chance of Democrats gaining in the midterms, what would have to happen for the 8% chance to occur? Previously it’s been the Great Depression, the botched Clinton impeachment and 9/11. So, once again is the Kavanaugh/Trump effect one of these historic moments? Increasingly it’s a possibility. The question is if the momentum lasts into Election Day or if it tappers off over the next month. To be continued...

 

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