The AOC effect? More Americans now ID with Republicans than Democrats

The AOC effect? More Americans now ID with Republicans than Democrats

Bottom Line: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez grabs headlines, attention and cameras pretty much everywhere she goes. That doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily a good thing for the party she’s currently residing in while representing the Bronx. 

I’ve pointed out the similarities between the battle between the pre-Trump Tea Party and the Republican establishment and what’s been happening in the post-Obama era for Democrats. Just as a battle waged for years over the heart and soul of the Republican party prior to Trump arriving on the scene and putting an end to all of it – remaking the party in his own way – the same is true on the left today. 

Truth is the battle for the heart and soul for the Democratic party really began with the Occupy movement after the 2010 midterms but didn’t take hold until after the end of the Obama Presidency. Nancy Pelosi, your establishment Democrat (again think about how far the Democrats have moved left for Nancy to be a “moderate” within the party), was only able to cling to power by granting lots of space for her upstart radicals on the left highlighted by AOC. From the Green New Deal to Medicare for All,a number of incredibility unrealistic socialist proposals have been confidently discussed and championed by AOC and company. While Nancy’s figuring out how to deal with the full-blown socialist insurgency in her party – there’s evidence that it already might be sending more middle Americans to the right. 

In Gallup’s monthly tracking polling of party identification there’d been huge moves in 2019. Coming into the year here was the party ID breakdown:

  • Democrats: 34%
  • Indy/3rd party: 39%
  • Republicans: 25%

Democrats held a significant 9-point advantage among identified partisans. And today...

  • Democrats: 30% 
  • Indy/3rd party: 37%
  • Republicans: 31%

What a difference two months makes in AOC’s America! That’s a ten-point turnaround from two-months ago. You have to go back to May of 2016 to find the last time Republicans held this type of an advantage over Democrats in partisan identification. This is worth watching as we track into the 2020 cycle.