2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds & the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 54% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 67% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. President Trump’s average polling is currently slightly below average at this point in his presidency – though he remains the favorite to win reelection. He’s back to being above average with likely voters however, and that places him on solid footing from a historical perspective now.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the polling among Democrats. Ironically, despite the hypothetical head-to head polling that’s meaningless at this stage in the cycle, he might represent the lowest opportunity for Democrats to recruit new voters in 2020 should he become the nominee.
Heading into last night’s debate here was the scorecard for Democrats.
- Biden: 27%
- Warren: 17%
- Sanders: 17%
- Harris: 7%
- Buttigieg: 5%
The only other semi-interesting tidbit is that Andrew Yang passed Spartacus & co a couple of weeks ago to pull into 6th in the race. It’ll be interesting to see where the dust settles next week after last night’s debate.