2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds & the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 50% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 43%)
- 61% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 47%)
President Trump’s weakened approval ratings this week on back of impeachment palooza, combined along with being just 13 months away from Election Day, has led to the lowest overall odds of a re-election win to date. Using history as a guide he’s at a 50-50 tossup right now with an average of all polling. As has consistently been the case, his performance among likely voters is stronger, and that’s reflected with President Trump still being a favorite to win based on likely voters alone.
President Trump’s average polling is currently slightly below average at this point in his presidency. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats.Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the average of all polling among Democrats;however,his lead has shrunk again this week and there’s no question that Elisabeth Warren is the momentum candidate.
Here’s the current average polling with the changes since last week.
- Biden: 26% (-2)
- Warren: 24% (+2)
- Sanders: 17% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 6% (flat)
- Harris: 5% (flat)
To give you an idea of how dramatically this race has shifted, in May Biden was averaging 41% to Warren’s 8%. Biden was highly vulnerable before the recent revelations and accusations of Ukrainian shenanigans and Chinese palm greasing. He could be in real trouble. At a minimum it plays right into Warren’s already hot hand. Now, the reality check is this. We’re talking about a bunch of movement in polls three months before actual votes are cast. Both parties have long lines of candidates that peaked early and faded quickly. I guess the question is if that candidate is Biden or Warren. And as for Sanders...bless his heart. Literally! In all seriousness, it’s impossible to how rough and rigorous a run for president is day to day for well over a year. Add into that consideration one’s 78 and being treated for cardiovascular issues – that's a tough one. After Bernie there’s not much going on. Buttigieg and Harris are polling at about half of their best levels which is a bad sign with fewer candidates in the race and greater recognition of who they are by voters.
No other candidates currently poll above 3%. We may see additional defections over the next week or so as reality begins to set in for more candidates.