The Florida Election Series
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Bottom Line: With Tuesday’s Primary elections behind us Florida’s political landscape is taking shape for November. We’re all familiar with Florida’s critical role as a swing state in close Presidential elections but that’s far from the only balance of power which will be determined based on how we vote. Two years ago, when Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives, their flipping of two South Florida seats – the 26th and 27th were endemic of what we’d see in other tight districts nationally. Conversely, in that same election cycle it was Rick Scott’s flipping of a senate seat which might prove to be pivotal in the Republican attempt to retain control of the Senate this cycle. In this week’s look at the Florida Election Series we’ll take a look at the change in Florida’s voter registration over the past four years.
2016 Election:
- DEM: 37.8%
- GOP: 35.3%
2020 Currently:
- DEM: 37.2%
- GOP: 35.4%
Over four years ago, the percentage of Florida’s voters registered as Democrats has dropped by 0.6%. Over that same time Republicans have gained 0.1%. The swing totals a net advantage for Republicans of 0.7% over Election Day four years ago. That’s notable because Donald Trump won Florida by 1.2% and the improvement of 0.7% is bigger than the margin of victories for Ron DeSantis or Rick Scott in 2018. The wildcards are the 27% plus Florida NPA/Minor party voters. Clearly four years ago most of Florida’s NPA’s broke for Trump. Will there be a repeat this year? At a minimum President Trump, and Republicans generally, have a bit of a tail wind over the political makeup of Florida’s registered votes compared to four years ago. To be continued...