Biden’s Basement, Small Businesses & Illegal Immigrants – Top 3 Takeaways – June 2nd, 2023
- The basement is no longer working. During the campaign and throughout the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency...the basement worked. As in, if Joe Biden hid in it, he either performed well in the eyes of the American people, or at least better than when he was visible. The reasons for this were and are obvious. At best your rank-and-file American liked the idea of what Joe Biden theoretically represented. No one, at least who’s sober, has watched and listened to Joe Biden in recent years and felt better about that experience. And so, in a somewhat predictable fashion during Biden’s first two years as president, when he was publicly visible, his poll numbers declined. When he’d deploy the “basement” strategy they’d go up. And the thing about dementia is that it’s anything but a fine wine. It most certainly does not age well. Meaning the full Joe Biden experience today is far cringer than it was two years ago today. For at least these reasons team Biden has had every reason to not only continue to execute the basement strategy but to expand it by keeping him in it even when he’s in the White House. And given that Joe Biden won the presidency while in the basement, it’s perfectly understandable for his team to think that he can retain it while in the basement. But just when you were wondering if the average American is really just that dump, or apathetic, or whatever you call voting for Bernie there are signs of life. Not with Bernie, but with the American public. I regularly track the Civiqs polls online because they’re dynamically updated daily and are completely transparent. Anyway, here’s the deal. There haven’t been any new, specific catalysts for a slow but steady decline in President Biden’s approval polling, but it’s there. After peaking during the past year at 41% in December while fully employing the basement strategy, there’s been a slow but steady decline in the perception of his performance. Most recently our collective approval of him stands at just 37% in Florida and nationally. That includes his approval rating falling to 26% among independents and with double-digit percentages of Democrats now outright disapproving of his performance. He’s also down to having net positive approval in only seven states – California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont. Not even New Yorkers are feeling the Bern...er Biden. So yeah, it appears the basement strategy is no longer working. And yes, you do have to wonder about the 37% of people who take a look at Joe Biden and think...yeah – give me some more of that guy’s sweet political action. But generally, there’s hope for the country outside of Florida yet.
- A reversal of fortunes. It was a tale of two jobs markets and two different sizes of businesses in May. The ADP Private sector jobs report showed that once again last month the labor market remained resilient, adding 278,000 jobs. A strong number with unemployment as low as it currently is, and especially against the backdrop of fears of a potential recession. But the number didn’t really tell the story. The real story was with where the jobs were added. Large companies shed a large number of jobs during the month – with a loss of 106,000 jobs. However smaller businesses shined during the month with the smallest companies, those with fewer than twenty employees, adding the most with over 116,000 new jobs – while midsized companies also added nearly as many. It’s especially odd for large job losses in the same month we see large job gains to begin with. It’s even more unusual for small businesses to be the bigger beneficiary. For years larger businesses have grown often at the expense of smaller companies. The pandemic in particular exacerbated those issues as many large businesses were either deemed “essential” and not shut down, while their smaller counterparts weren’t so fortunate, or they had the financial wherewithal to ride out pandemic lockdowns in a way many smaller businesses didn’t. It’s healthy and encouraging to see, if even just for a month, small businesses performing best. Small businesses are leading economic indicators and that many have been eager to hire, while large businesses are becoming increasingly quick to fire, may be the best indication yet that we may be able to head off a significant recession this year. No guarantees of course, however small businesses would only be hiring at that pace if the cash register was ringing enough to demand it. And speaking of businesses and lockdowns...
- Some locked themselves down yesterday. Yesterday an indeterminate number of small businesses in West Palm Beach heeded the call of a determinate number of protesters at City Hall, approximately a couple hundred, and shut down for a while midday. And while this might seem like bad business, and it is, the symbolism that as of July 1st businesses would be shut down because of Florida’s new E-Verify law, was there. Did it matter? No. Will it matter? No. The law has already been signed and takes effect July 1st. But the message itself should in my opinion be heard. The organizer of the so called “Latino Movement” protest, who’s advocating for status quo illegal immigration practices in Florida made the argument by saying “he doesn’t want to pay $2 for a strawberry”. Now, I’m not sure where exactly his precise economic wisdom was derived. But the point is clear that if not for illegal immigrants working for what must be, I don’t know what must be slave wages, because a strawberry costs a small fraction of that currently, where would we be? Does anyone realize the irony of that argument from someone who claims to be “pro-immigrant”? But look, the nonsense needs to stop. The first thing is that near as I could tell the participating businesses aren’t even subjected to the new law as it only pertains to those with 25 or more employees (but why let facts get in the way of good illegal immigrant advocacy protests, right?). The second thing is that we’re supposed to be completely cool with people breaking the law by coming here, living here and working here. And we’re supposed to have sympathy for businesses which break the law first by hiring them and then through tax evasion and fraud. Now of course that’s not the way any of this is ever covered. Nope, we’re to feel for the plight of the federal criminals known as illegal immigrants taking advantage of our system. And we’re to fear $2 strawberries without them. They think we’re stupid, and based on the coverage of the protests, I understand why, however the state legislature and Governor DeSantis aren’t. So, there’s a choice. Choose to do things the right way, or perhaps choose to self-deport by July 1st. Although there’s always the possibility of being relocated to Martha’s Vineyard thereafter...