Can Trump Win Again? - Top 3 Takeaways – June 29th, 2023
- Is he right? A former Vice-Presidential candidate, a former Speaker of the House. A former Tea Party conservative. Paul Ryan has been a lot of things over the years, but being favored by the Republican Party base hasn’t been one of them in many years. It’s not even quite July yet, we’re over 16 months away from 2024’s Election Day, however the fear from what may be with the Never Trumpers is now palpable. And that’s due to two reasons which hit at something I touched on last week when I pointed out that DeSantis is flatling. And by flatlining I mean having been an official candidate for president, for now over a month, making the rounds, and not moving the polling needle anywhere. DeSantis continues to poll at the same 21% level he polled at nationally when he entered the race, and he continues to poll well behind Trump in literally every state that has polling – including Florida. There’s always room for firsts, and if there’s going to be an election cycle in which we get them, this will no doubt be the one, as it’s already an unprecedented situation following Trump’s indictment. However, history isn’t at all on DeSantis’ side. In the history of Republican primary polling in open presidential election cycles, I wasn’t able to find an eventual presidential nominee who didn’t improve their standing within their first month as a candidate. And that’s now where we are with DeSantis. This realization isn’t likely lost on Politicos like Paul Ryan which is why we’re now seeing and hearing the early stages of what appears to be political panic. In speaking to CNBC yesterday Ryan said: I believe strongly, if we nominate a Republican not named Donald Trump, we win this White House. Which is also why he said: I’m for anybody not named Trump. This isn’t the first time Paul Ryan has said something similar. He’s made the media rounds saying similar stuff for a while. However...
- The air of desperation is different. While not endorsing DeSantis explicitly, Ryan had previously said (prior to any of them announcing) his favorite Republican Presidential candidates would be Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin (who apparently decided not to run) and Tim Scott. Without Ron rising, and without Scott polling in a meaningful way, his tone, which is representative of much of the establishment of the Republican Party, has simply reverted back to anyone but Trump. But is he right that anyone but Trump would win? The top argument against Trump by the establishment Republicans isn’t what you might think. It’s not about Trump being a no good really bad man or anything like that. It comes down to one issue above all others for most of them. Donald Trump’s candidacy would take the focus off of Joe Biden’s failing presidency. The counter argument to this is that Presidential elections are always referendums on the incumbent. And if we’re looking at referendums on the incumbent, it’s already pretty clear that Joe is a dead man walking (not literally of course, he only looks that way). A Sinclair Media poll conducted just yesterday found that 80% of Americans say they are worse off today than four years ago. Is it possible that Trump’s such a force of nature that at least 30% of the people who say they’re worse off than they were when Donald Trump was president would prefer to stay with Joe and vote against their own economic interests instead? It’s possible. But in my opinion...
- It’s unlikely. This line of thinking has been a regular hot topic of conversation with my establishment Republican friends. The question that’s constantly thrown back at me when I push back against the narrative is this. What states are he going to flip from Joe Biden? The implication, which may be accurate to a degree, is that everyone is so firm in their opinion of Donald Trump that he can’t, and he won’t win over new votes. My answer to them is that he doesn’t need to. That’s usually met with a laugh given the outcome of the 2020 election. I’ll share with you what I’ve been telling them with what I think happens if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president. Fewer votes. Here’s the national voter turnout percentage for the past three presidential elections. 58% in 2012. 59% in 2016. 67% in 2020. 2020’s Presidential Election turnout was the highest on a percentage basis in over 100 years. Fueled by pandemic influences, including many states mailing out ballots willy nilly, turnout surged well beyond anything any of us have seen in our lifetimes. If the presidential matchup is Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump, there isn’t any amount of money I wouldn’t be willing to bet on there being lower turnout compared to the 2020 election. And from there my logic makes more sense. In 2016 Donald Trump won an election between two candidates most Americans disliked. In 2024 Donald Trump can do the same. No, it’s hard to imagine Donald Trump winning over new voters at this stage of the game, however his base is far bigger and stronger than Joe Biden’s (in fact even discussing a Biden base of voters sounds funny – it's purely diehard Democrats that has nothing to do with Joe’s semi-existence). But the surge of new voters who backed Joe Biden because they hated Donald Trump and believed that he’d bring back “normalcy” won’t be back to vote for Joe. They won’t vote for Trump. They just won’t vote. That’s what I believe Paul Ryan and other establishment types get wrong. Is it possible that other Republican candidates, starting with Ron DeSantis, would be better general election candidates? Maybe, perhaps even probably. But to amend Paul Ryan’s statement as to what I perceive: I believe strongly, if we nominate a Republican, we win this White House. I believe any Republican candidate, including Donald Trump, can and most likely will do it. The paths to getting there just may look different based upon who it is.