Florida’s Changing Demos, Evolving Politics & Future Focus - Top 3 Takeaways – January 3rd, 2024
- Florida’s Changing Demographics. Stereotypes exist for a reason. There’s a reason why in Seinfeld, Jerry’s parents retired to Del Boca Vista (which btw, is the name of an actual condo complex – not in Boca Raton, but in Fort Lauderdale). For generations Florida’s been known as a retirement state. And with good reason. But times, they’ve been ‘a changing. Pandemic migration trends with the advent of remote work combined with Florida’s freedom began to change everything and it doesn’t appear to have stopped – even as remote work for many businesses has. Over the past year what generation has been the most likely to move into Florida? Not Boomers...but rather their kids. A Business Insider analysis of Florida’s most recent Census data shows more Millennials moved into Florida than those of any other generation. In fact, most of Florida inbound migrants were under the age of 42. While somewhat weird to think that the oldest Millennials are now 42 years old, over half, 50.1% of Florida’s inbound population were either Millennials or Gen Z. In fact, only 29.7% of Florida’s inbound population were of a traditional retirement age. As noted in the report, the typical mover to Florida makes $55,000 a year is a Millennial or Gen Xer, is married, and most commonly moved from New York or California. It doesn’t exactly fit the Del Boca Vista stereotype, or in the real world (not that there isn’t a Del Boca Vista) that of The Villegas for that matter. What’s also changing demographically is the financial condition of those coming vs. going. While it’s well known that Florida has far more people entering the state than leaving it – for those who are coming, they’re earning more than those who’re leaving and they’re more likely to buy a home. Those who left Florida over the past year earned an average of $7,500 less per person than those who entered the state. 12% more of the comers are homeowners than those who have been on the go. Stereotypes in some situations may still apply, but as it turns out Florida’s been becoming younger and wealthier and for that matter...more conservative.
- Florida’s evolving politics. It’s been no secret that Florida’s political trend has been the Republicans friend for quite a while now, however 2023’s off election year appears to have produced a record political swing by way of voter registrations. According to the latest voter registration information from the Florida Division of Elections (which shows updated registration information as of December), Republican voter registrations outpaced Democrats by nearly 314,000 during the first 11 months of the year leaving Republicans with a registration advantage of nearly 700,000 most recently. As we’ve now entered a presidential election year, how does that compare to the last one? Three years ago, Democrats still held a voter registration advantage of greater than 97,000 voters. That’s about an 800,000-voter swing in under three years. Of course, voter registrations and actual votes are two different things, but Florida’s never been more conservative by way of voter registrations than it is entering 2024. Which is not only great news at this stage of the cycle for Republicans in statewide races, a la Rick Scott’s senate reelection bid, in addition the eventual Republican nominee for president who’s all but assured to be a Floridian who’s already twice won in this state (that’s true of both Trump and DeSantis)...but it’s also great news for Republicans down ballot as we’re continuing to see Florida’s traditional deep blue counties like Palm Beach and Miami Dade morph into shades of purple placing races down ballot in South Florida in play. Florida has been the epicenter of Republican politics for several years now and the electorate reflects it.
- Florida’s Focus on the Future. The future of Florida’s public policy will begin to be shaped in less than a week as the state’s legislative session kicks off next Tuesday. Governor DeSantis, who hopes to be President-elect a year from now, but most likely will remain our governor a year from now, is set to lead on his agenda which he’s coined “The Focus on Florida’s Future Budget”. Unlike last year’s budget and legislative proposals, which were met with great fanfare, and outside interest, following DeSantis’ record win in the 2022 midterms and growing momentum presidential polls...this year’s agenda has been lightly watched nationally as he’s faded in presidential primary polls. But next Tuesday as DeSantis delivers his annual state-of-the state address opening up the state legislative session, he’ll be doing so while calling for a budget which is $4.6 billion less than the current one. That’s largely due to federal funds from the COVID-era having been used, but it’s also a sign that Florida’s booming economic times aren’t quite booming to the level that they once were. This as economic growth has slowed down in addition to the expressed interest in exercising fiscal restraint. The DeSantis plan calls for 1,000 fewer government workers, continued raises for teachers and first responders, along with a host of policy proposals, like an additional $1.1 billion for Everglades restoration and waterway improvements that effectively keep the governor’s previous agenda intact. One new area of focus, which is sure to be popular given Florida’s property insurance crisis and related affordability issues, is DeSantis’ proposed one-year exemption on taxes, fees and assessments for Homeowners Insurance Policies underwritten across the state which will save homeowners an estimated $409 million, or an average of about 3%, on their policies this year. Speaking of homeowners, the governor is also calling for the My Safe Florida Home Grant Program, which provides for free home inspections and matching dollars for home hardening efforts of Floridians (like adding impact windows and doors) – which is a great benefit for those who take advantage - permanent. What the budget, and DeSantis’ agenda doesn’t include, is new culture-war material which largely dominated the coverage of last year’s legislative session. Yes, there’s a little budgeted for potentially having another flight of Martha’s migrants – which probably won’t happen anyway (I’m still waiting for the relocation of illegals to Biden’s beach)...but there are no new policy proposals involving abortions, books, matters involving the homosexual alphabet, bathrooms or Disney. What will be interesting is to see is the response from the legislature to the agenda of America’s Governor. Up to this point in office DeSantis’ popularity within the state led to unprecedented success in having his agenda enacted. Will that continue? How the legislature responds to DeSantis this time around will ultimately determine how Florida focuses on the future.