The Presidential Primary Races – January 17th, 2024
Bottom Line: Election Day is under ten months away and the election season is officially underway with Donald Trump’s dominating win in Iowa on Tuesday. While Trump’s win was widely expected there were two storylines to watch. Would Trump finish above 50% of the vote (he did), indicating that he had more support in Iowa that the remaining candidates combined, and who would finish second? Ron DeSantis went all-in in Iowa and needed a second place showing for his campaign to appear viable. It was close, he edged Haley by only two-points, but it was enough to justify his place in the campaign as he fights to attempt to establish himself as the top non-Trump candidate. Meanwhile, Iowa was the end of the line for Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign as he ended it after a distant fourth place finish – endorsing Trump in the process. Ditto Asa Hutchinson minus the Trump endorsement.
Now the attention turns to New Hampshire which votes next Tuesday (which is also the Democrat’s first nomination contest this year).
Here's where the Republican candidates stand with pledged delegates after Iowa:
- Trump: 20
- DeSantis: 9
- Haley: 8
- Ramaswamy: 3
As for what’s next? Donald Trump most recently has led Nikki Haley by 14-points in New Hampshire, 30-points over Haley in South Carolina and 59-points over DeSantis in Nevada. Those polls were taken prior to the exits of Christie, Ramaswamy and Hutchinson however, and it remains to be seen if there’s any impact from Iowa’s results which may carry over to other states. DeSantis will certainly attempt to conjure some momentum from his second-place finish in Iowa, heading into the early state where he’s consistently polled worst – New Hampshire and Nikki Haley’s home state of South Carolina – which follows it. DeSantis got the second-place finish he needed in Iowa, however he faces an uphill battle to remain the Trump non-Trump candidate in the race from here.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the isle, Democrats will begin their nomination process in New Hampshire next week as well. While much has been made of Donald Trump’s ballot access in states like Colorado and Maine, with the United States Supreme Court set to hear challenges to Trump’s ballot access next month – it's actually Joe Biden who lacks ballot access in the first state to vote. The DNC attempted to have South Carolina become the first primary in the Democrat’s nominating process. Instead, New Hampshire broke with the national party deciding to hold its primary first as historically has been the case. President Biden sided with the DNC – choosing not to validate the state party’s decision. As a result, his campaign in New Hampshire is a write-in campaign, providing his little know competition – Congressman Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson with an easier opportunity to attempt to score votes and delegates in the state. President Biden’s write-in campaign shows a 48-point lead over Dean Phillips with available polling.