The Presidential Primary Races – January 31st, 2024
Bottom Line: It’s late early in the presidential primary races. As we’re wrapping up January today the biggest questions in the minds of most voters aren’t whether President Biden and former President Trump will win the necessary delegates to clinch their party’s nomination, but whether President Biden might bow out of the race at the convention and whether former President Trump will be convicted in any of the four pending criminal cases against him before the election...along with whomever his running mate might be. We’re only two contests into the race for Republicans, with two wins for Donald Trump. He became the first non-incumbent President to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in an open nomination process since Iowa and New Hampshire became the first two states to vote in the early 1970’s. As for Democrats, they’ve had only one non-party sanctioned contest in New Hampshire, however President Biden won a write-in campaign by over 40-points. A win that big in a state where he’s not even on the ballot is the writing on the wall that Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson are credible challengers to him in the mind of Democrat primary voters.
Here's where the Republican candidates stand with pledged delegates after New Hampshire (1,215 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Trump: 32
- Haley: 17
- DeSantis: 9
- Ramaswamy: 3
As for the Democrats running for president – no delegates were awarded in the New Hampshire Primary due to the DNC’s decision not to recognize the state’s primary results.
As for what’s next? Democrats hold the next two elections in the nomination process. South Carolina’s Democrats vote this Saturday, February 3rd, with Nevada’s Democrats voting next Tuesday, February 6th. Biden has polled with a 64-point lead in South Carolina and 74-point lead in Nevada. The next Republican contest is the Nevada caucus February 8th. Nikki Haley chose not to compete in Nevada. It appears as though the only potential drama in this year’s nomination process will be whatever is decided in the legal system as it pertains to Donald Trump and health/Hunter Biden’s legal matters as it applies to Joe Biden. Given those outstanding factors it may be the case that Nikki Haley remains in the Republican race and one or both of Phillips and Williamson remain in the Democrat’s race.