The Presidential Primary Races – February 7th, 2024
Bottom Line: In what is turning out to be an anticlimactic nomination season, virtually all of the drama has to due with what’s happening with President Biden’s health and former President Trump’s legal matters more than the actual contests in certain states. We’re only two contests into the race for Republicans and three for Democrats but the results have been clear. Two commanding wins for Donald Trump and three overwhelming wins for Joe Biden following his easy win in the Nevada primary last night. Trump became the first non-incumbent President to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in an open nomination process since Iowa and New Hampshire became the first two states to vote in the early 1970’s. This nomination season has taken on the feel of essentially two incumbents running for president.
Here's where the Republican candidates stand with pledged delegates after New Hampshire (1,215 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Trump: 32
- Haley: 17
- DeSantis: 9
- Ramaswamy: 3
As for the Democrats (1,968 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Joe Biden: 88
- Dean Phillips: 0
- Marianne Williamson: 0
As for what’s next? Republicans hold the next two elections in the nomination process. The Nevada Republican Caucus is tomorrow (8th) with 26 delegates on the line, as is the Republican Caucus in the Virgin Islands – though no delegates are available in that contest. Nikki Haley didn’t choose to compete in the Nevada Caucus – so Donald Trump is all but assured of winning all of Nevada’s delegates. Following this week’s contests, there won’t be another election until the South Carolina Republican primary on the 24th. It appears as though the only potential drama in this year’s nomination process will be whatever is decided in the legal system as it pertains to Donald Trump and health/Hunter Biden’s legal matters as it applies to Joe Biden. Given those outstanding factors it may be the case that Nikki Haley remains in the Republican race and one or both of Phillips and Williamson remain in the Democrat’s race. That’s been the case to date.