Q&A – Which Party Does RFK Jr.’s Independent Presidential Bid Hurt Most?
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian, RFK question for you. I’ve heard competing thoughts as to whether RFK will hurt Trump or Biden more in the election. Who do you think he’ll take more votes away from?
Bottom Line: This is a topic I touched on last October after RFK Jr. dropped his challenge to President Biden in the Democrat primary, announcing his independent presidential bid instead. As I mentioned at the time...Not since Ross Perot, who twice pulled in at least ten percent of the national vote in ‘92 and ‘96 has there been a candidate polling with the potential to create a legitimate three-candidate race. But unlike what happened in ‘92 and ‘96, RFK Jr.’s independent presidential bid launched yesterday, after the Democrat Party rigged the primary process against him, appears more likely to siphon votes from that side of the isle this time. Of course, I wasn’t just winging it in making that suggestion out of the gate... Here was the logic I cited: Only 38% of voters who say they’ll vote for Joe Biden for president say that their top reason for voting for him is because of him...far more of his supporters, 58%, say the motivation is a vote opposing Trump. Meanwhile, 56% of Trump’s voters say that their top reason for voting is to support for the former president while only 36% are primarily motivated to vote against Biden. In other words, Trump’s support is between 18% to 22% stronger than Biden’s support. If one’s main motivation to vote is against a candidate they don’t like, as opposed to for a candidate they’re passionate about, they can still do that with a potentially strong independent, like RFK Jr. in the race. RFK Jr.’s entrance into this race effectively creates a new tier of potentially persuadable voters. The voters who don’t necessarily like either candidate but loathe one of them more. That happens to be most of the current Biden constituency.
Well, it’s been nearly six months since that initial analysis and a lot has happened. We’ve had significant developments in Trump’s legal matters. Both Biden and Trump have clinched their party nominations (having done so in the second fastest time on record) and RFK Jr. has now announced his running mate. We also have much better information to draw from. What hasn’t changed is that most polled voters pledging support for Joe Biden are still mostly motivated by voting against Donald Trump, while most of Trump’s supporters are just that, his supporters. With that narrative appearing to be intact, and regular polling nationally and in swing states as we’re now only a little more than seven months away from Election Day, we can put that train of thought to the test.
Using the RealClear Politics average of polls here’s the national scorecard:
- Trump vs. Biden: Trump +1.6%
- Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy (+West & Stein): Trump +2.6%
At the first temperature check the narrative holds. Trump’s lead over Biden grows by 1% nationally with the 3rd party influence added to the mix. Taking a close look at specific swing state polling shows the following...
- Arizona Trump vs. Biden: Trump +5.2%
- Arizona w/3rd Parties: Trump +6%
- Nevada Trump vs. Biden: Trump +5.2%
- Nevada w/3rd Parties: Trump +6%
You might be starting to see what amounts to a pattern. Without boring you with the details of all of the swing states, here’s what the scorecard currently looks like. Of the nine swing states I’ve identified in my anatomy of a swing state series: Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin...The only swing state that Donald Trump doesn’t perform better in with the extra candidates into the mix is Michigan. That’s an 8 to 1 ratio, or enough that suggests that as of today it does appear to be the case that RFK Jr.’s entrance into this race is more likely to negatively impact President Biden than it is to hurt the former president.
Indications are that RFK Jr. has the potential to pull the largest share of the vote by a non-major party candidate since Ross Perot. This may also prove to be a case of history repeating itself – where it’s the incumbent president that’s hurt most...just with the party’s reversed. Many have been quick to say that RFK would pull the most votes away from Trump due to his stance on vaccines. There’s one psychographic hole in that argument. Those who’re most likely to be the most adamant about vaccines on the right are also those most likely to identify as part of Trump’s base. Trump’s base support is far stronger than RFK Jr.’s vaccine stance. This is why it’s more likely that disenchanted Democrat voters who can’t stand Trump, but that also don’t approve of Joe Biden, may find a home in the biggest name in Democrat politics that exists.