June's Hurricane History & a preview of the 2017 season:
Bottom Line: So hurricane season is once again upon us. How's it June already btw? Last year's hurricane season was 35% more active than normal and after years 11 years of dodging hurricanes in Florida, Hermine hit the panhandle and Matthew was a major wake up call for those of us in South Florida.
In any event here's a breakdown of this year's forecasts and June's history.
- According to Colorado State University we'll have 11 named storms (below average), NOAA says 13.5 (midpoint of their guidance), the Weather Channel is predicting 14
- Of those storms CSU says 4 will become hurricanes, NOAA says 7 (midpoint), Weather Channel is at 7
So the NOAA and Weather Channel forecasts lineup pretty similarly - with a slightly above average seasons while CSU's forecast is a bit more favorable. We've already had a named storm in the Atlantic but by this time last year we had already had two. So what does June typically look like?
Going back to the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes - 1850 - here's how much activity has taken place in June:
5% of all tropical storms have formed in June and just 3% of all hurricanes have occurred during the first month of hurricane season. That being said June storms do tend to form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have been created in June, 7% of all hurricanes that have made landfall in the US have occurred in June.
Here's the good news... 2% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season...So technically we're 2% of the way through hurricane season before it begins. 98 bottles of beer on the wall...