2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 43%)
- 65% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. President Trump’s average polling is currently below average at this point in his presidency, however his performance among likely voters is average. As of now he’s still outperforming Presidents Clinton and Obama among likely voters at this stage in the cycle.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the polling among Democrats. Ironically, despite the hypothetical head-to head polling that’s meaningless at this stage in the cycle, he might represent the lowest opportunity for Democrats to recruit new voters in 2020 should he become the nominee.
The next big moment for the Democratic candidates is the third debate. As of now ten candidates have met the requirements for the debate which includes a higher combination of polling and donor support to qualify. They are... Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.