A Red Wave May Be Building – Top 3 Takeaways - September 30th
- A GOP wave is still on the table. Currently in Florida the waves we’ve been most concerned with were those spawned by Hurricane Ian. But there’s the building, or perhaps rebuilding, of another one that’s also not that far away. Election Day is now under six weeks and as we get closer momentum matters. That’s in part because soon actual votes cast by mail will start to matter. Throughout the summer and into the early days of fall, the narrative has remained that Democrats have momentum. For objective observers it’s hard to imagine how that could be the case. We’re in a recession, which isn’t even commonly acknowledged, led by 40-year high inflation which we’ve been living under for about a year. Thanks to efforts to defund the police and through local “bail reform” and other politically correct policies, violent crime is the worst in over 30-years. Much of that crime along with record drug overdose deaths is being driven by an open border with more illegal immigrants now entering the country in a quarter than used to attempt to cross during a year. With a weak president in Joe Biden the dearth of political leadership in the world has led to geopolitical messes and threats everywhere – none the least of which is the Russian invasion in Ukraine which now includes the threat of nuclear escalation. As I stated, for objective observers it’s hard to imagine how all of these realities could in any way result in momentum for the political party completely in charge of federal policies. Up to now the only perceived winning issue for Democrats was abortion. An issue which also appears to be just about the only thing most are attempting to run on.
- It’s hard to imagine how abortions on demand could be more important than safety, security, affordability and a strong economy which allows people to improve their lives. And as it turns out, common sense may well prevail, and a GOP wave is still on the table. Why am I mentioning this now? As you’re likely aware most pollsters haven’t been very good at polling. But there were two which were exactly right on the generic ballot outcome in the 2018 midterms. ABC News/Washington Post and USA Today/Suffolk. While an average of all polls currently shows Republicans ever-so-slightly favored, the most recent results suggest something more is happening. While it’s been over two months since we received an updated national USA Today/Suffolk poll, ABC News & the Washington Post are out with their latest and it paints the picture of a potential red wave in the making after all. The poll which shows Republicans with a five-point advantage, is actually one point lower than their 2010 poll showing Republicans with a four-point advantage heading into that historic midterm Election Day. In fact, the generic ballot polls are now showing Republicans with an advantage once again for the first time in over a month, and there’s an apparent building of momentum. What this illustrates is that a Republican wave remains on the table as we’re getting down to closing time. In the wake of the SCOTUS decision overturning Roe, I spoke to what I believed was a political miscalculation of sorts expecting that to be the issue which would carry the day for Democrats. The first consideration is that abortions on demand don’t pay the bills and the second is that most Americans don’t think indiscriminately whacking babies in the womb is the best idea running anyway. 72% of Americans support 15-week limits on abortions, a la Florida’s law, which is more or less the standard in states across the country, and those most animated by this issue were always going to be voting for Democrats. You might say that in the final six weeks of this campaign cycle there’s an apparent shift back to life and back to reality and...
- If it’s a referendum on Biden and his polices, Democrats will lose huge. As they should. After the recent Biden polling bounce, his ratings have started to go back the other way. This includes only 39% approval nationally, which is also his current approval rating in Florida. This includes only nine states where he has net positive approval – California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington. It appears as though Biden’s mega-MAGA rants aren’t resonating or paying the bills. Who could have seen that coming? President Obama’s approval rating was 46% on 2010’s Election Day during the record red wave. As a country we currently like Biden much less. If it’s a referendum on his policies, and the GOP’s agenda to improve upon them, Democrats will lose huge.