Trump’s Move to Go Negative on Ron Is Working – Top 3 Takeaways – June 7th, 2023
- Going negative on Ron is working. The ads, the “Truths”, the nicknames, it’s working. For decades, when asked Americans have said they don’t like negative campaign ads and messaging. For decades we’ve witnessed the attack ads, if anything, getting worse. And the reason why you might not like the negativity, but continue to get a steady dose of it, is that it works. And the view of Florida’s governor and newly minted presidential candidate Ron DeSantis is but the latest – yet one of the most easy to illustrate examples of this. Yes, Ron DeSantis was first referred to as DeSantimonious by Donald Trump the weekend before them midterm election cycle over six months ago. No, the steady drumbeat of negativity about Ron didn’t really begin until the top Trump-backed PAC went full pudding fingers on Florida’s governor starting in April. That marked the start of an open season on DeSantis starting with Trump, continuing with PAC attack ads and now being piled on by leftists in news media with every campaign stop DeSantis makes. And it’s now quite clearly begun to take a toll. For the better part of two years, there had been one nationally known political figure with net positive favorability ratings in the eyes of the average American. And that political figure was Governor DeSantis. On the back of the Florida Freedom message due to having successfully navigated pandemic policy, DeSantis’ favorability soared nationally. Hence the nickname “America’s Governor”. And his favorability stayed there as record setting numbers of Americans fled to Florida for freedom once they were given the chance. But now, on the back of the attacks, times are changing. As recently as mid-March DeSantis’ average net favorability rating (those who view him favorably minus those who view him unfavorably) stood at a stout 7%. A rating that stood in stark contrast to all of the other national political figures. But now, as DeSantis is in full campaign mode and taking hits from every direction, the average American...
- Has soured on the man whose mission is to Make America Florida, (he literally wrote a book on this). Ron DeSantis’ most recent favorability rating is now in negative territory with a net negative 3.5% rating. A figure which sits behind House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s -2% favorability rating (by the way, McCarthy’s rating has been on the rise since the debt deal). So, mission accomplished by team Trump thus far. Many Republicans, especially Floridians, have become upset by the negativity between the two political figures they like most. But the fact of the matter is that it hasn’t impacted Trump’s ratings in the least. Americans are already well set in their opinion of our former and perhaps future president. What Trump’s been able to successfully do thus far is to dent the most compelling argument most DeSantis supporters make. That effectively he’s “Trump without the bad stuff”. If the average American now views Ron negatively as well... Then he’s just a different type of bad in their eyes. Now the news isn’t all bad for DeSantis. Yes, the perception of the average American isn’t what it used to be. No, most don’t like him anymore. However, he has a few things potentially going for him. First, if you’re in a heavyweight fight you’re going to get punched. The key is how you handle it and whether you’re able to bounce back from it. Everything up to this point was sparring. The real fight has only just begun. Second, while not viewed favorability by most, he’s still viewed much more favorability than the only two presidential candidates which currently poll ahead of him in Joe Biden, who currently has a net negative 15% rating and Donald Trump at negative 14%. Trump already showed you can win an election even when most Americans don’t like you and in large part that was because they didn’t like Hillary Clinton either. If DeSantis’ negativity can bottom around where it is now, his perception in the eyes of voters would still be far more positive than his competition – both in the primary and in the general if he were to get there. And speaking of getting there...
- People buy from the people they like. It’s an old saying in sales that’s about as true today as it ever was. And in the context of voting that tends to apply as well. People generally vote for the people they like. This is why favorability ratings at this stage, as opposed to say hypothetical polls 17 months in advance of an election, might be the best indication of what may be when votes are cast. And what you might have noticed in this analysis is that both Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are viewed more favorably than Joe Biden. Given everything Trump’s been put through, everything he’s being put through, and what he may soon be put through by Biden’s Justice Department – that’s quite remarkable. It’s also quite the indictment of Joe Biden’s presidency in the eyes of the average American. How many people are willing to bet that Biden gets better from here? So given the direction that he and his presidency are trending, what this tells you is how compelling of a position the eventual Republican nominee for president will be in. And also, it’s why and how Donald Trump’s team can make the case that potential 2020 shenanigans aside, he’s much better positioned to win a rematch. Even if the DOJ tries to put him behind bars. People buy from the people they like. Or in the case of 2016, and now likely in 2024, vote for those they dislike the least.