Trump, The DOJ & The Fed – Top 3 Takeaways – June 15th, 2023
- Justice will be done. Quick show of hands. How many think “justice will be done” because the Department of Justice will have done it? How many people think justice will be done because the American people will have done it? For all of the obvious reasons there's an awful lot not to like about the way that justice is being selectively served in this country... In the words of the Federalists’ Mollie Hemingway...After the last seven years, no one believes the DOJ is acting in “good faith”. And she’s right. Hillary Clinton illegally absconds with mountains of classified documents which she stores and shares from a private server, destroys the evidence during the investigation – including literally smashing electronics into pieces with hammers. That’s one way to obstruct justice. But in the words of FBI Director James Comey: Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. Right, Hillary Clinton broke literally every federal statute Donald Trump was just indicted for allegedly having broken – plus one – she didn’t just obstruct justice – she destroyed evidence. But no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. Unless of course it’s Donald Trump. In that instance not only will the case be brought but the prosecutors assigned to investigating the case and pressing charges will literally have been Joe Biden 2020 campaign donors. Because that’s evidently the only reasonable thing to do. And this is of course isn't to get into the actors behind the Steel-Dosier and Trump-Russia collusion hoax or the Biden pay-for-play scandals which are currently under investigation but for which federal agencies were well aware of prior to the 2020 election but conspired to hide from the American public. At this point even the most dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, who is remotely honest about what’s transpired, must admit that at best what we’ve witnessed is the equivalent of a horribly officiated game. A game where one-sided officiating impacts the outcome, but it favors their team, so they’re ok with it. In fact, the officiating has become such a joke that Hillary Clinton herself came out after Trump’s arraignment condemning his actions as “profoundly disturbing”. Given the absurdity of it all, I know yours are but what are mine came to mind as a potentially legitimate Trump response. But about justice actually being done. As Donald Trump said in his speech after the arraignment Tuesday night. On November 5th, 2024 justice will be done. And for all that there is for one to be legitimately cynical about what’s become an evident two-tiered system of justice in this country – that line from Trump speaks loudest. In the end the founders trusted us over the swamp creatures to decide who should lead this country. And they trusted us to be able to elect a leader even if they’d been prosecuted by the swamp. So, I have no idea what “justice” will look like between now and then. But he is right that justice will be served as we see fit next November. But in the meantime...
- It’s not working politically. That is at least yet anyway for Democrats. So, a funny thing has happened in the first post-indictment news national poll to be produced. Trump appears to be benefitting. After the New York indictment on the Stormy Daniels charges, there was what I referred to as a “rally around the Trump effect” in Republican primary polling circles but that didn’t translate in general election polling. The initial Economist/YouGov poll post the federal indictment news shows something different. The potential for a national “rally around the Trump effect”. Not a large one mind you, but movement in Trump’s direction that may suggest Americans in the middle think what’s happening here is a bridge too far. Two weeks ago, in the previous poll, President Biden showed a 3-point lead head-to-head in a hypothetical rematch with Trump. Yesterday – with a completely post-indictment news sample – it's tied between the two. And that doesn’t even speak to just how significant of a move there’s been with that particular pollster. On Election Day 2020 – that same poll showed President Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump. That’s a huge swing over two years ago, and a meaningful initial swing on back of the indictment news. It’s way too early to know how this all may eventually play – however the early returns suggest it’s not working politically for Democrats.
- The Fed is done for now. As was widely expected after a historic rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to combat historically high inflation which turned out to be anything but transitory, the Fed is done for now. With this week’s Consumer Price Index showing the inflation rate to be a still historically high, but far more manageable 4%, the Fed got off of the gas in raising interest rates. This doesn’t mean that the Fed is necessarily done raising interest rates, but it does mean they might be. Over the short term there’s likely to be a bit of settling out in many variable rate loan products, like mortgages. And as a result, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mini surge in borrowing activity. Which may also mean South Florida’s ever-resilient real estate market may be set for yet another boost in the coming weeks.