The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – August 30th
Bottom Line: It’s now been a week since the first Republican Primary Presidential Debate which provides an opportunity to see what the impact of it on this race happens to be. What candidates helped their candidacy? Did Trump pay a price for opting to skip the debate in lieu of a Tucker Carlson interview? This GOP primary process is unlike any other as the former President of the United States is not only running for president once again but is doing so while under a series of indictments at state and federal levels. Indictments notwithstanding, the story to date has been one of Trump’s domination in the polls over the GOP field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the average of only post-debate national polls which also factor into which candidates will be eligible to participate in the 2nd debate September 27th (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 53% (-3)
- DeSantis: 14% (-1)
- Ramaswamy: 8% (+1)
- Haley: 6% (+3)
- Pence: 5% (+1)
- Christie: 4% (+1)
- Scott: 2% (-1)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. This exercise paints a picture of the initial impact of the first debate on the Republican primary race. Trump does appear to have taken a bit of a hit for opting to sit out the debate, though he’s still averaging greater than 50% support and he’s closest challenger, DeSantis, has lost a bit of ground as well. The biggest beneficiary of the first debate is shown to be Nikki Haley, as she’s doubled her support...that said – it's relative as she’s still in the mid-single digits. Otherwise, Mike Pence and Chris Christie were both small beneficiaries of the first debate as well. A major party candidate leading by as much as former President Donald Trump currently leads by has never lost a primary contest. That said, the question exists as to if Trump could continue to lose support should he skip future debates. One wonders if these early returns on the impact of the first debate will impact his thought process about participation in future debates. As of today, two of the participants in the first debate have yet to meet the requirements to participate in the next debate – Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson. Speaking of candidates polling under 1% - Miami Mayor Frances Suarez who failed to make the first debate, has suspended his presidential campaign. Until next week...