The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – November 1st, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re now only a little over a year away from Election Day and historically inside of a window in which eventual presidential primary winners have moved into front runner status in route to winning the party’s nomination. The past week has also provided the biggest shakeup in the race to date as former Vice President Mike Pence joined Frances Suarez, Will Hurd, Larry Elder and Perry Johnson in announcing he was dropping out of the race.
We’re also closing in on the 3rd Republican Party debate which will be held November 8th in Miami. Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s now 46-points, a new high, after two debates. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into debate eligibility (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 59% (flat)
- DeSantis: 13% (flat)
- Haley: 8% (flat)
- Ramaswamy: 5% (flat)
- Christie: 2% (flat)
- Scott: 2% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
- Hutchinson 1% (+1)
As the weeks tick by with little conviction for any Trump challenger, the feeling of inevitability continues to grow. The biggest short-term question is which candidate stands to benefit most from Pence’s exit from the race. He was only averaging about 4% support at the time of his exit from the race – so the impact figures to be minimal given Trump’s massive lead in the race, however it does have the potential to impact the race for the top Trump challenger if Nikki Haley is able to consolidate most of the previously pledged Pence support as many think is possible.
Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination. Trump’s 59% support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s of course what happens in individual states, that determine the winner. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 32-points in Iowa, 31-points in New Hampshire, 30-points in South Carolina and 38-points in Nevada. Notably Nikki Haley has surged passed Ron DeSantis for the second position in New Hampshire and South Carolina and is increasingly looking like she could overtake DeSantis as the top Trump contender.
Until next week...