Trump Is a Loser, DeSantis is a Loser, Is Haley a Winner? - Top 3 Takeaways – November 9th, 2023
- Trump is a loser. It sure didn’t look that way at his counter programming rally in in Hialeah last night. He was in his element with an electric crowd which made him proud and no doubt made many onlookers nostalgic for what times were like in this country four years ago and what they could be like again a little over a year from now. In fact, you didn’t have to wait until the rally to get a sense of what a winner Trump has been for this country and what he means to many South Floridians. People were lined up and ready to rock first thing in the morning for Trump. What other politician could accomplish such a thing? More people had lined up for the Trump rally by nine o’clock in the morning than would ever even consider attending a Joe Biden event. Which btw, think about that one for a minute. What would a Joe Biden rally even look like? Do you think he could even turn out a single Century Village? But that guy’s the leader of the semi-free world and we’re being told Trump is a loser? But actually, it wasn’t President Biden’s team or even a Democrat who so specifically said that the former and perhaps future President of the United States is a loser. It was friendly fire from a one-time Trump cabinet member. Nikki Haley’s campaign put out a memo on Wednesday in the wake of a second straight year of disappointing election results for Republicans entitled: Isn’t It Time We Had a Republican Who Can Win a General Election? In the memo Haley’s team detailed the losses by Republicans on Tuesday laying the blame once again at Trump’s feet. The memo then details polling showing her performing best head-to-head against Joe Biden. Along the way team Haley also detailed DeSantis’ polling woes (as he’s consistently been polling well behind Haley and Trump often looking as though he might be the only one to lose head-to-head with Biden). The memo ends by saying... To beat Biden and save America, the data is conclusive: Trump is a loser. DeSantis is a loser. Haley is a winner. It’s fair to say that any polling a year in advance of an election is anything but conclusive. But the election results two years running are. It just so happens that the biggest winner in the country a year ago was DeSantis. He most certainly bucked the GOP election funk. I’m far from convinced that he’s a loser. In fact, DeSantis’ biggest issue this year may be that he was so much of a massive winner that it went to his head, but I’ll save that train of thought for another time. The question as framed by team Haley is whether Trump is a winner or whether Trump is the reason Republicans have been losing races they’ve expected to win. That’s ultimately for Republican primary voters to decide. I do think Trump is related to the reason Republicans underperformed on Tuesday but that it’s ultimately the way that candidates have handled their campaigns that were to blame. It’s quite clear based on Tuesday’s results that it wasn’t Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis that were losers. It was abortion as an issue once again that was a loser for Republicans. President Trump’s Supreme Court Justices delivered prolife conservatives a massive win in the battle over abortion, however the seeming inability for Republican candidates to manage the issue they’ve been handed, has them losing the war in the court of public opinion. I’ll address that topic in today’s Q&A. But speaking of Nikki Haley...
- Did she come out a winner? It’s weird talking about whether a candidate who is polling at 9% and trailing by nearly 50% has momentum. But to the extent that such a thing exists Nikki has had it. Heading into the third debate she was the only participating candidate who’d improved her standing in the race since the onset of the debates and she has started peaking in the polls at an important time. The big question in last night’s debate was whether Nikki could come out looking like a winner or whether DeSantis would retain his consistent place as a the top non-Trump candidate. Perception is in the eyes of the beholder but as I’ve discussed the real race for everyone not named Donald Trump is to be the top contender to him by the time actual votes are starting to be cast. Of the first four states to vote Ron DeSantis is 2nd in two (Iowa and Nevada) and Nikki is 2nd in two (New Hampshire and South Carolina). If that were to hold through the caucuses and primary election days of those states, the only winner would be Donald Trump. Which takes us to those for who’s...
- Time to go has come. It’s safe to say that any Republican candidate not on last night’s debate stage, not named Donald Trump, has no chance of being the next President of the United States. I’m looking at you Asa Hutchinson and Joel Malkin’s potentially 2nd favorite Muppet Doug Burgum. But it’s also safe to say that there are three candidates who were on last night’s debate stage that also have no realistic chance of being the next President of the United States either. If you add the collective support of Ramaswamy, Scott and Christie you only get to the level of support that Nikki Haley had entering last night’s debate. The time for them to go has come. Vivek Ramaswamy had a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, but he whiffed and alienated people instead. Tim Scott’s a nice guy who won’t finish last but won’t come close to winning either. And Chris Christie is what he’s always been in this race. A big man with a big mouth who’s bent on getting Trump. The irony is that the longer he remains in the race, the better Trump’s already super strong chances of winning are (which in reality means this has always likely been more about his own ego than it has been even getting face time to try to stick it to Trump). In any event the time for those not named Trump, DeSantis and Haley to go has come. Otherwise, if they’re still there come January, Trump will have likely already won. Which would make him anything but the biggest loser.