History Repeating & A Manufactured Surprise - Top Three Takeaways – March 13th, 2024
- On to November. It’s official, we’re set for a 2020 presidential election rematch with both former President Donald Trump and President Biden clinching their respective party nominations by winning the necessary pledged delegates to bring them both back into a November presidential showdown. And with the win's history was made. For only the 2nd time in the two-party system's history, both major party nominees clinched their nominations on the same day. As for the last time it happened... The Finish Constitution was being rewritten. Eric Clapton; Earth, Wind and Fire, Bonnie Raitt; James Taylor and Nat King Cole headlined the Rock and Rock Hall of Fame class. The stock market’s dot-com bubble began to burst. Amazed by Lonestar was on the top of the charts...Who Wants to Be a Millionaire was the top-rated TV show (three times over – it was on three days per day and they were 1-3 in the ratings). The year was 2000 when Al Gore and George W. Bush each clinched their respective party nominations on March 9th. Which, in hindsight, wasn’t it a bit of foreshadowing that they clinched their party nominations on the same day? In any event that’s the last time that it’s happened and the only other time that it’s happened. That also means that this is the second earliest end to the nomination season in American history (and only four days away from having been earliest ever). And those little factoids are only the jumping off point for presidential history in the making. The Trump-Biden rematch marks the 7th in US history, though the first since 1956. And what has history said about presidential rematches? It’s generally been good to be the challenger. Of the six previous presidential rematches, the candidate who lost the election the first time around won the election the second time around. Is that necessarily predictive of anything this cycle? No, though human nature throughout time does have a way of repeating itself. Hence the saying that “those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it”...or Mark Twain’s spin on the saying which was: “History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme”. And the early signs point in the general direction of what’s most often happened in American history in these instances...
- Happening once again. At the start of the general election race the former and perhaps future President of the United States is posting leads across the board. Trump’s advantage over Biden is two-points in an average of national head-to-head polls, 4-points when a third-party candidate is added to the mix, 3-points when three third-party candidates are sampled and 12-points in the betting markets. Trump currently holds polling advantages in almost every swing state in the country including a 6-point advantage in Arizona, a 6-point advantage in Georgia, a 4-point advantage in Michigan, an 8-point advantage in Nevada and a 1-point advantage in Wisconsin. Currently the only swing-state where President Biden shows a lead in is Pennsylvania – where he’s shown up one. Based on an average of current polling, Trump starts this head-to-head contest with an Electoral College advantage of 293 votes compared to 245 for Biden. Polls, especially those conducted this far in advance of an election, are worth little more than what you paid for them, however they provide a temperature check of where the country sits today. Moreover, they’ve historically under-sampled Trump’s actual support. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s happening again, or will happen again, however it’s notable that Trump’s average change in the head-to-head polls over Election Day 2020 is 9-points in his favor. All of this is to say, that as of today, history in multiple respects is on Trump’s side.
- The manufacturing state. Alligators, beaches, manatees and oranges are all among the things that Florida’s known for. So too are we known for sunshine, retirees and palm trees. What Florida’s never been known as is a manufacturing state, but according to Florida TaxWatch’s newest report that’s yet one more thing that Florida’s become. According to TaxWatch, Florida’s manufacturing sector has now grown to the level to formally be considered a “manufacturing state”. As is cited by TaxWatch in their MakeMore Manufacturing Summit Summary Report, Florida is now home to over 25,000 manufacturing companies employing over 426,000 people. Also of note, the average salary for those jobs checked in at just under $75,000 – which is close to $25,000 above the state’s full-time average. In terms of total output only 11 states manufactured more than Florida last year and at the rate Florida’s been growing manufacturing it’s only a matter of time before we’ll be in the top ten. Over the past decade Florida’s averaged 9,600 new manufacturing jobs per year. The Free State of Florida is many things to many people, including now officially qualifying as a manufacturing state.