September hurricane history - how much of the season is statistically behind us:
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems don't go hand-in-hand however. September is notable for two reasons.
It's the most active month of hurricane season historically...and the absolute historic peak of hurricane season is September 10th. So let's take a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Going back to 1851 and tracking the Atlantic hurricane season there have been 574 tropical storms in September. That accounts for 35% of all tropical storms. The hurricane development is even more skewed towards September activity. There have been 396, or 40%, of all hurricanes that have formed in September.
That's an average 3.5 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes during the month. But back to the original question... How far through the season are we statistically?
The answer is only about 33% based on hurricane development and 38% based on tropical storm development. So we've got a lot more ahead of us but once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly.