October was the worst month for Republicans this year according to Gallup

October was the worst month for Republicans this year according to Gallup: 

Bottom Line: Monthly Gallup provides a party ID update. It's pretty straight-forward, what party do you ID with - if any. All throughout the year the news has been interesting, telling and instructive. Despite the general media narrative (Trump sucks and such), GOP ID had actually averaged above the levels registered on Election Day 2016 - when Republicans won more elections than at any other time since the 1920's. That did come crashing down to earth in October however. 

Here's where we were on Election Day 2016:  

  • 36% Independents  

  • 31% Democrats  

  • 27% Republicans  

  • 6% third party 

Last month:  

  • 40% Independents  

  • 30% Democrats  

  • 29% Republicans  

  • 1% third party  

And today:  

  • 42% Independents  

  • 31% Democrats  

  • 24% Republicans  

  • 3% third party  

The last time GOP party ID was as low as 24% was July of 2015 when just 23% of adults ID'd as Republicans. It's notable that Democrats haven't capitalized on the defections (at least not directly at this point) which is important. There are as many Democrats today as a year ago. The difference is that more Republicans have been turned off enough to suggest they're now third party. The easy go to would be to suggest this would have something with President Trump but that's almost certainly not the case. As tracked throughout the year - GOP ID had actually been higher than Election Day until last month. Instead I think this is a product of Republican failures on healthcare and tax reform. Again, the top three agenda items Americans wanted on Inauguration Day were 1. Healthcare Reform 2. Tax Reform 3. SCOTUS vacancy addressed 

We're only gotten #3 and frustrations have been noticeable from the President to the average engaged voter. That puts added emphasis on the importance of the Republicans roll-out of tax reform today. 

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