Who will win the governors races in New Jersey and Virginia today:
Bottom Line: We have two states that will elect new Governors today. As is tradition, New Jersey and Virginia both feature off-election year races for their states. As I'm inclined to do given current accredited polling and using history as a guide we can glean into what's most likely to occur today.
When projecting the outcomes in any particular election there are three important ingredients.
Current accredited polling that can be averaged together
Historical results in a like election
Like elections that occur in like circumstances
First let's look at Virginia... Here's the change in actual voting outcomes on Election Day compared to the average polling on Election Day:
2013: +3.5 gain by GOP on Election Day
2009: +4.1 gain by GOP on Election Day
2005: +2.7 gain by DEM on Election Day
2001: +.9 gain by GOP on Election Day
Average of past four elections in Virginia is:
+1.5% for GOP on Election Day
In like elections (incumbent GOP President):
+.9 for DEM on Election Day
Final accredited polling: D +3.3%
Final outcome: - Ralph Northam (D) wins by 1.8% - 4.2%
In New Jersey the story is a lot clearer. Here's the Election Day change compared to polling:
2013: +1.8 gain by DEM on Election Day
2009: +3.3 gain by GOP on Election Day
2005: +4.4 gain by DEM on Election Day
2001: No accredited polling
Average of past three elections in New Jersey is:
1% Dem gain on Election Day
In like elections (incumbent GOP President):
+4.4% gain by DEM on Election Day
So, what's the outcome?
In New Jersey: The final accredited polling D+ 13.75%
Final outcome - Phil Murphy (D) wins by 14.75% - 18.15%