Part 1 - The real unemployment rate for January 8th:
Bottom Line: Once again we saw a lot of disparity between the ADP private sector jobs report which produced a blowout number of 250,000 jobs being added to only to be brought back to a more humble government report showing 100k+ fewer jobs being added all in (148,000). History has consistently demonstrated that after revisions the ADP Report tends to be slightly more accurate and consistent - which would suggest that we'll likely see future upward revisions to the government number in future months. That being said there was a bunch of decent info within the report.
Headline unemployment rate 4.1% (flat with last month to maintain the lowest unemployment rate in 17 years)
Positive and negative revisions for prior month jobs reporting
Lowest unemployment rate for African Americans in the history of the BLS employment report!
Top industries for hiring:
#1 Healthcare (added 31,000 jobs)
#2 Construction (added 30,000 jobs)
#3 tied Manufacturing/Food service (added 25,000 jobs)
We have an absolutely incredible manufacturing story continuing to play out. After leading in job growth two months ago, manufacturing continues to be a top three job producer. In a quick peak at twenty years of data on manufacturing I couldn't find a similar three month period. Any questions about the Trump resurgence in manufacturing? Now for the real unemployment rate once underemployed and long-term unemployed people are accounted for.
Actual: 8.1% down from 9.1% (year over year improvement of 11%)
So here are three relevant points:
1. When the long-term unemployed & marginally employed are factored in - the real unemployment remains nearly double the base reported rate
2. 1.5 million are long-term unemployed, 4.9 million are underemployed (part-time seeking full-time work) & 1.6 million are marginally attached to the workforce
3. The labor participation rate remained at 62.7%
In part two we'll take a look at the demographics of the unemployed...