Credibly Challenged & Politically Confused - Top 3 Takeaways – April 24th, 2024

Gagged. Day 2 of Trump’s New York state hush money case didn’t exactly start off well for the former and perhaps future President of the United States...and that’s putting it mildly. These are facts associated with the case. The judge overseeing this case is conflicted. The premise of the case is false as I explained yesterday. But then there’s this... So far Trump’s counsel doesn’t appear to be helping his case. Based on the underlying facts it may be true that this case never should have been brought and that Joe Biden donor Judge Merchan should have been recused. But it’s also true that Trump’s attorney has a job he needs to do to mitigate the situation. Based on what’s been reported, from those in the court room, it doesn’t appear to be happening. Somewhat famously, or perhaps infamously, his opening remarks to the jury in the case included...” I have a spoiler alert: There’s nothing wrong with trying to influence an election. It’s called democracy”. While the statement is structurally correct, it may not have been strategically correct. The former president faces a hostile backdrop. One in which, as I pointed out when a down selected juror who bowed out last week (who was surprised that Donald Trump looked more “yellow” than “orange”)... The twelve jurors seated in this case may or may not be surprised specifically about Trump’s skin color, but effectively, the connotation behind that line thinking persists. It’s always in a defense attorney’s interest to have a client humanized before a jury. That’s probably doubly true for Trump, a person who possibly, and given the venue likely, isn’t liked by any of the jurors. There are a lot of ways one could frame the statement Trump’s attorney Todd Blanche made that perhaps could have shown Trump in a more favorable light than essentially saying that Trump’s paying off of Stormy Daniels to stay quiet before the 2016 election is democracy. He’s correct, but that’s just not the example most people are going to associate with it, and it could play into the worst stereotypes of Trump they may already believe in. Day two didn’t start off any better for Blanche.
Losing all credibility. Day two of the proceedings started off on a challenging foot for team Trump- a hearing to discuss the alleged 10 violations of the judge’s previously rendered gag order. Trump didn’t do Blanche any favors by posting what he posted on Truth Social that brought the hearing about. But in the hearing, Blanche didn’t do himself any favors either. After the prosecution had presented the judge with ten examples of posts Trump made that potentially were violations of his gag order, Blanche defended the posts as responses to attacks on Trump by Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels on social. However, when the judge asked to see the proof, he didn’t provide any. Whether the proof doesn’t exist, and Blanche was just making that up or whether he wasn’t prepared I don’t know. But came next from Judge Merchan stole the show when he said (the prosecution) was losing all credibility with the court. That doesn’t help his ability to make his case going forward, but most importantly it doesn’t help Trump’s case to gain an acquittal either. This trial has a long way to go, but Blanche isn’t off to a great start – which means that Trump may not be either.
We’re angry and we plan to vote red. In 1976 the movie Network produced an enduring line for all-time. I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore! Appropriately the context was a news anchor having lost it over his frustration with the state of the world around him. From crime to the economy, he sounded off on the all-time movie rant. In 2024 many are living in the real-world version of what was depicted in that movie. Cities like New York and Chicago are ground zero. Speaking of which it was in February, in Chicago, that lifelong Democrat and sudden community leader Cata Truss publicly had her “I mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore moment”. In the words of Truss: We're so angry here in Chicago, which has been a Democratic stronghold for most of its eternity. This year, we're working to turn Chicago red. We are so angry with Pritzker and with President Biden and with our mayor, that we have decided that we are going to vote Republican this time around. That's just how angry we are. We are so angry that we are willing and going to turn our backs on the Democratic Party. I believe that she means it. The question is how many other people really mean it? I don’t believe for a moment that Chicago will break for Republicans this fall, but will the sentiment be sufficient to produce outcomes no one saw coming? In advance of elections the closest tools we have to somewhat realistic temperature checks are polls. And importantly, one of the dynamics in play in election cycles is where people are reliably polled. The answer, because of the significant money that it costs to conduct them (at least somewhat credibly), is where races are expected to be close. For that reason, outside of swing states, we don’t see much in the way of polls aside from actual votes cast at polling places. For example, there hasn’t been an accredited statewide poll conducted within the state of Illinois so far this year. So, there’s no way of telling if a significant sentiment shift is really transpiring there. But there was just one in New York. And that was interesting. The pollster Siena, which is the most consistent pollster of New York politics, just produced a presidential poll showing Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 10-points - in New York. In fact, it was the fifth conducted since last October. Here’s what Biden’s lead in each of the polls has been: 9, 10, 9, 12, 10. Now, what’s potentially interesting about a pollster showing Biden with a steady and consistent lead of about ten points? Here was Biden’s lead in Siena’s five polls preceding the 2020 presidential election: 25, 36, 25, 25, 32 (Biden won New York by 23-points). Biden’s average polling advantage in one of the bluest of blue states with the state’s most reliable pollster has shrunken by 19-points over four years ago. None of that likely matters in a state like New York (although it certainly could down ballot), but suddenly, if that sentiment shift is even remotely true, a state like Illinois where Joe Biden won by 17-points potentially could become interesting (let alone the potential implications in more competitive states). That is if in fact there really are large swaths of reliable Democrat voters in inner cities who truly are mad as hell and aren’t going to take this anymore. We shall see.