Important headlines for March 6th
Bottom Line: These are stories you don't want to miss and my hot takes on them...
Conservatives Are Losing the Culture War Over Guns Peter Beinart, The Atlantic
Hot Take: When it comes to attempting to "win" culture wars, I'm generally not terribly concerned. Our collective culture isn't generally representative of the way our country should governed. For example, think for a moment about the implications of having hippies dictate policies in the late 60's. We'd all be speaking Russian right now. Aspects of this debate are different.
A time-tested reality is that generally we become more conservative as we mature and advance through life. This isn't universally true but as I've spoken of for a couple of decades - the average self-proclaimed liberal really lives a conservative life. There's nothing liberal about trying to improve your life, your career, paying taxes, raising a family, etc. Often people on the left will associate with ideas they often don't practice in their own lives, but think are important based on whatever rational. Then there are traditional issues that transcend culture and traditional politics. Whatever your views on it happen to be - gun control is one of them.
For a couple of weeks, I've shared research about what Americans wanted before and after Parkland. The answer is generally the same with only a little extra exaggeration. Stricter laws. As I've indicated - 60% of adults wanted tighter laws prior to the Parkland shooting and an average of 66% do after. Two-thirds of adults. One might imagine the number would be even bigger with those even younger. That's a significant number that shouldn't be ignored. Importantly, even existing gun owners favor reform by a margin of 50%-46%. So, what's happening? A lot of traditional political stuff. Take the governor's proposal for example.
Despite it being a comprehensive plan that was well thought out and vetted through expert advice and overwhelmingly supported principally in Florida - Republicans in the House and Senate decided to draft their own proposed legislation that's less popular and is being held up generally. It's an example of why there's a losing culture war that's playing out regardless of where this all settles. There are many reforms that a solid majority of Americans agree with. Mental health, school safety measures, universal background checks, raising the legal age to 21 to purchase unless one's already in service to the country or community and banning bump stocks. But it's not happening and that's perceived to be due to conservatives standing in the way (which is true).
The outcome of this will eventually be the passage of those reforms (at a minimum). The question is whether these politicians will do it or those who'd replace them in part due to this issue otherwise.
Don't Worry About Trump Tariffs--They Might Do Some Good Josh Bivens, NY Times
Hot Take: Yesterday I provided a three-parter on trade that explained how and why we've having this conversation and why it makes sense to begin to change trade policy. With the United States not really having any essential trade, it really doesn't make sense for us to get 24% less out of our trade deals than the other countries we trade with...especially since we have the top economy and should be a net beneficiary if anyone if going to come out on top. As articulated we've already had positive economic impact since the announcement of the Asian solar-tariff.
It's extremely unlikely that the US will have any meaningful negative impact even under the potential worst-case retaliatory circumstances. Because other countries have much more to lose than us - they'd ultimately be hurting themselves more than us every step of the way. As a free-trade oriented person it seems strange to make an economic case for tariffs - however when trade isn't equitable in the first place it makes much more sense. I've heard from several people who've expressed that they don't agree with my views or position on trade based on what I stated yesterday. I want to be clear. My views on free-trade vs. protectionism haven't changed. What I've always stated is that I go where the facts take me. It's the only way to learn and truly be analytical in the process.
As I comprehensively researched the dynamics involved they supported the narratives I advanced. As the President has pointed out. We're not trading equitably. If we were it'd be a different set of circumstances. Maybe the tariff threats are enough to result in trade deals more equitable/favorable to the US and this becomes a moot point and negotiation tactic but even if they do hit - there's an economic argument to be made for them.
Until tomorrow...