Brett Kavanaugh's odd's of being confirmed

Brett Kavanaugh's odd's of being confirmed 

Bottom Line: I'll start by saying that I fully expect that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice. Concisely put – he's well known and vetted. Anything that'd be inherently disqualifying would already be known. That being said using history as a guide – Brett's odds of being confirmed are... 68%. Why 68%?  

There have been 113 confirmed Supreme Court justices with 32 nominees who weren't confirmed at the time of original nomination (of those 32 non-confirmations – seven of the candidates did eventually win confirmation to the court). So, in full context there's an 83% chance that Brett Kavanaugh will be a Supreme Court Justice.  

Some might be surprised to know that despite the perception of modern politics being more partisan and divided – most rejections took place in the first half of our country's history. 21 of the 32 nominees to not receive initial confirmation were nominated prior to 1900. 

 

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