Important headlines for July 26th - School Security & Florida's voting trends
Bottom Line: These are stories you shouldn't miss and my takes on them...
Excerpt: On the first day of school next year, there will be only one way to get in during the school day at 135 of Broward’s 230 schools. Signs and fences will steer visitors during the day toward a “Welcome Center,” where they will have to show ID to enter the school.
Hot Take: At first glance this appears to have merit. The devil is always in the details and execution, but it sounds like it has potential to be part of a solution...
Voter registration patterns in Florida match 2014 trends — when Republicans won – Miami Herald
Excerpt: While the March for Our Lives organizers are the highest-profile group attempting to register Florida voters ahead of the 2018 midterm election, they’re hardly the only group from across the political spectrum trying to sign up young voters in the nation’s largest swing state.
Recent data from TargetSmart, a data firm that works on behalf of Democrats, showed that voters from ages 18 to 29 made up a larger share of newly registered voters in the two and a half months after the Parkland shooting on Valentine’s Day, compared to the two and a half months before the shooting.
But a deeper look at Florida’s voter file shows that the post-Parkland bump, where the total number of young people registering to vote increased by 41 percent in the two and a half months after the shooting, matches trends during the 2014 midterm elections in which Republicans were able to maintain control of the governor’s mansion and win back a competitive Miami congressional seat.
Hot Take: Here's the deal. There's a point to be made. Leftist activist groups tend to make noise and grab headlines but seldom have the follow-through politically. Consider that after the 60's hippies evolved into Vietnam protests Richard Nixon waxed George McGovern 520-17. Maybe all of the activists were just stoned on Election Day? That or their hand was just wildly overplayed. What we're starring at today is likely is different version of a similar thing. Especially given that the March for Our Lives Movement was born out of our backyard.
The bottom line is that history tells us there's a 92% chance Democrats will gain seats this year. And as of today – that's absolutely the case based on every type of analysis I've applied to what's going on nationally. In Florida – it's a bit of a different ballgame. There's an even money chance that Rick Scott picks up Bill Nelson's Senate seat and a slight edge for Republicans to hang on the Govenor's mansion pending the outcomes in the primary. The only clear advantage in our state right now is in the House. Democrats will almost certainly gain at least one Congressional seat in the House in Florida. So, what's behind some of this?
Back to the voter registration thing...
And here's where we were a year ago:
Democrats: 4,807,950
Republicans: 4,544,708
Here's the current voter registration in Florida:
Democrats: 4,792,599 (-15,351)
Republicans: 4,562,533 (+17,825)
Surprised? Yep, there are actually fewer registered Democrats in Florida today than a year ago while Republicans have seen increases. Doesn't exactly fit the hype, the protests, the marches, etc., does it? But then again, it's the same media that's hyped these movements that also had attempted to convince you that Clinton would cruise into the White House, right? And that's why I'm here. To cut through the B.S. The more things change the more they stay the same. Except for the relevance of traditionally misleading media.
Until Tomorrow...