Florida’s primary turnout takeaways...
Bottom Line: Prior to Primary Day there was a developing story in Florida’s politics. Not only was a blue wave not apparent in our state, there wasn’t even a ripple. Republicans ended casting more than 43,000 more votes than Democrats which was significant for a couple of reasons. First, there are 2% more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans. So, Republican turnout exceeding Democrats in a partisan primary cycle is notable. Second, Republican turnout net of registered voters was actually outperforming Democrats by 4%, not exactly a recipe for a blue wave. But elections are not won and lost with early and mail in voting alone and waves in November aren’t always obvious in August. If there were to be a brewing wave in our state, you’d expect to see Democrats weighing in on who their candidates for November’s elections would be. The first look in the wake of our Primary Elections shows that Republican voters were the most likely to turnout.
While we wait for official numbers from the state which may take several days, if we look at the total votes cast for the top-of-the-ticket races for Governor we see that 31% of Democrats cast a vote compared to 35% of Republicans. All told just over 109,000 more votes were cast by Republicans in the primaries. Will this turnout advantage hold in November? Which direction will non-party affiliated voters break in the general election? Far more questions than answers as our general election cycle begins but Republicans are off to a solid start in what figures to be a good cycle for Democrats based on historical trends.
(Registered voters by party and voter turnout for the Gubernatorial elections below)
Democrats: 4,840,119
31% turnout for Governor
Republicans: 4,594,373
35% turnout for Governor