September’s hurricane history & what this year’s looking like
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems don't go hand-in-hand however. September is notable for two reasons.
It's the most active month of hurricane season historically...and the absolute historic peak of hurricane season is September 10th. Ironically enough the exact day Irma made landfall last year in Florida. So, let's take a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Going back to 1851, 35% of all tropical storms have formed during September. Hurricane development is even more skewed towards September activity. 40%, of all hurricanes have formed during the month! On average 3.5 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes during the month. But back to the original question... How far through the season are we statistically?
About 33% based on hurricane development and 38% based on tropical storm development. So, we've got a lot more ahead of us but once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Entering September of last year, we already had ten named storms on our way to 17. This year we’ve had five which means we’re pacing 8-9 storms for the season. Fingers crossed that September’s as nice as August was...