A funny thing happened on the way to a blue wave
Bottom Line: With fewer than six weeks to go before our midterm elections, search for “Blue Wave” on any given day and you’ll doubtless find endless examples of salivating folks in the media perpetuating the message (a simple Google search at the time of this entry shows NBC, Forbes and the New York Times have posted related stories within the past day). But here’s the thing. Democrats likely have an advantage because history suggests there’s a 92% chance that the President’s party will lose seats in Congress in midterms but there have only been a few weeks this year where polling has indicated a “wave” type of election was in play. Most recently the polling has slightly moved to the right on the generic ballot. On that note comes Gallup’s latest on our view of the political parties.
For the first time since 2014, the Republican party is viewed more favorably than Democrats. Most recently 45% of Americans hold a favorable view of Republicans compared to 44% for Democrats. What’s more is that with 45% favorability, Republicans fare the best in Gallup’s sampling that they have since January of 2011. For comparison's sake Democrats held a 44% to 36% advantage entering 2018. Democrats are exactly where they were while Republicans have won 9% of Americans over. This likely breaks through stereo-types advanced in media, given that 91% of coverage of the Trump administration is negative but it adds up. The Republican party delivered on tax reform, the Supreme Court (with another justice pending) and we have the best economy in a generation. Democrats are generally where they were a year ago – simply looking to resist. It’s unclear where the dust settles exactly in November but as of now the blue waves remain at the beach.