October’s hurricane history & what this year is looking like
Bottom Line: Whew, the busiest month of the hurricane season is behind us and besides Leslie which is an extremely persistent, erratic storm that make up its mind about where it’s going...it’s clear in the Atlantic. Fingers crossed it remains that way.
The calendar tells us that we're two-thirds of the way through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems don't go hand-in-hand, but there is decent news entering October with cautionary tales like Wilma, a late October hurricane, to beware of. It's the third most active month of hurricane season historically behind September and August
Going back to 1851, 21% of all tropical storms have formed during October with 20% of all hurricanes. That paints the picture of how not out-of-the woods we are at this point (with one in 5 storms/hurricanes occurring during the month). On average 2 tropical storms and 1.2 hurricanes form during the month. But back to the original question... How far through the season are we statistically?
About 73% (73% of all historical activity happens prior to October). So, we've got a less than a quarter of the way to go this year. As a reminder not to let your guard down just yet. Wilma was the last October hurricane to directly hit South Florida during the month but Super Storm Sandy and Hurricane Matthew of two years ago were also October hurricanes (along with hurricanes Mitch in 98’, Opal in 95’ and the extremely deadly hurricane Hazel in 1954.
Entering October last year, we had thirteen named storms on our way to 17. This year we’ve had twelve which means we’re pacing 15 storms for the season. May the odds forever be in our favor... Until next month’s conclusion to this annual series...