Our final thoughts on Kavanaugh
Bottom Line: It’s been nearly 90 days unlike any other in Supreme Court history. At this point it’s safe to say that even the Clarence Thomas process wasn’t as trying or potentially as absurd as this one’s been. I’ve brought you two previous updates on our thoughts about Brett Kavanaugh and whether we want him to be confirmed based on Gallup’s ongoing polling of his nomination. In both of those instances, one after his initial nomination and the second after the Senate hearings, 4% more Americans, then not, wanted him to be confirmed. After the allegations but prior to the Ford/Kavanaugh hearing public opinion had shifted slightly in negative territory.
Last Thursday, prior to the hearings having started, 3% more Americans wanted Kavanaugh rejected than wanted him to be confirmed. So where are we today as the Senate is on the precipice of its final vote on Brett?
By a 46%-45% margin Americans believe that he should be confirmed
There are two quick takeaways. First, despite everything that played out during this process, public opinion of Kavanaugh barely budged. Top to bottom public opinion only shifted by 7% and to the extent that people were persuadable based on the hearings they generally broke towards supporting Brett. Ironically there’s a good chance that our public opinion will mirror the outcome here. Closely divided but slightly in favor of his confirmation.