Tracking Time – An update on Florida’s biggest races
Bottom Line: We’re now under four weeks before the general election. Florida’s two biggest races this year are exact opposites of one another. A year ago, just about everyone thought we’d have a Nelson vs Scott match-up for the US Senate. A race featuring two of the biggest names in Florida politics. Conversely, a year ago, few Floridians were even familiar with the names Gillum and DeSantis let alone of the belief that they’d be their party nominees. First up Florida’s senate race:
We’ve had two polls roll in within the past week. Here’s the current average.
- Nelson: 46% (-1)
- Scott: 46% (+1)
- Other 2%
- Undecided: 6%
These polls generally reflect post-debate sentiment and with some of the polling having occurred after Bill Nelson’s no vote on Brett Kavanaugh. As I mentioned on Monday, reading the tea leaves from Kavanaugh sentiment – it appeared as though Scott would benefit by 2% in this race. That’s exactly what we’ve seen as we’re now essentially in a two-way tie with just over three weeks left in the cycle.
As for the Governor’s race...
We’ve had three new polls roll in over the past week in the Governor's race and they’re still all pointed in the same direction but with a bit of a shifting tide towards a closer election.
- Gillum: 45% (-1%)
- DeSantis: 44% (flat)
- Other: 2%
- Undecided: 9%
Once again, getting the Q poll (that showed Gillum with a ridiculous nine-point lead) out of the mix, significantly changes the dynamic but the news is still a mixed bag at best for DeSantis. Andrew Gillum remains the front-runner and has still led in every poll conducted by every pollster since the primaries. DeSantis is very much within striking distance and there are more undecided voters in this race, which you’d expect given the much lower profiles of these candidates prior to winning the primaries. What’s increasingly looking likely is that these two races could break the same way – meaning the potential for crushing loses for one party and huge wins for the other.
Until next week...