Florida’s Final Early voting update

Florida’s Final Early voting update  

Bottom Line: Early voting has ended, and records have been set for a midterm election in Florida. Here’s the scorecard of who’s voted entering Election Day... 

  • Democrats: 2,067,856 – 40.6% 
  • Republicans: 2,043,167 – 40.1% 
  • Indy/3rd party: 948,158 – 19.3%

Total votes: 5,094,645 

Democrats finished strong with early voting ending with 24,689-vote advantage heading into Election Day. For comparison purposes... Republicans held a 90,670-vote advantage in the 2014 midterm elections and Democrats held a 96,450-vote advantage in 2016. We’re smack dab in the middle of those two cycles. Specific to Early voting – turnout was up 106% over the 2014 midterms (though it did trail the 2016 general election turnout by 30%)! A couple of numbers to watch specific to early voting turnout out only. 

In 2014 Democrats held a 37,000-vote advantage in early voting. In 2016, that grew to nearly a 155,000-vote advantage. This cycle Democrats led with 87,160 more votes.  

Unless the solid majority of Indy’s & third-party folks are backing Democrats – there's no blue wave in Florida. Not knowing what these votes look like makes it irresponsible to draw conclusions beyond that at this point. 

If you’re attempting to gauge turnout, here’s what you should look for in Florida. These were the total early voting totals (vote by mail and early voting) breakouts from 2014 heading into Election Day. 

  • Democrats:  40% 
  • Republicans: 42% 
  • Indy/3rd party: 18%

Republicans held a 2% overall voter advantage in 2014 heading into Election Day in a cycle that was favorable for them generally across our state. As of today, we’re seeing a neutral landscape heading into Election Day. It’s cliché to say that independents will decide close elections, however that appears to be especially true this cycle. 

 

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