How Florida was won...Revisited - The Kavanaugh effect in Florida

How Florida was won...Revisited - The Kavanaugh effect in Florida (and beyond) 

Bottom Line: Here’s a flashback to a story I brought you on October 8th, that’s instructive on back on the historic pickups of Republicans in the Senate...

In a Governor’s race that continues to be highlighted by non-Governor related issues (SCOTUS, to impeach or not to impeach President Trump, etc.) there is the question about how the Kavanaugh confirmation will play across the country and right here in Florida. While I was tracking public perception of the Kavanaugh confirmation there were two points that jumped out at me.   

First, public perception nationally moved four points in favor of Kavanaugh after the Christine Ford accusations. That means that in general, to the extent that this process impacts politically, it should benefit Republicans. Second, the 30 states that supported and continue to support President Trump are likely to see bigger benefit.   

In a related story last week, I pointed out that for the first time in American history the Supreme Court was the top midterm issue. So, it certainly has the potential to matter across the ballot including in a Florida Governor’s race for example. In states like West Virginia and North Dakota – where President Trump is extremely popular, the impact in those key Senate races appears to be around 10%. In Florida, that’s less clear. One of our Senators, Marco Rubio, voted for confirmation but he’s not up for re-election for four more years. Bill Nelson who voted no, will have his fate decided in four weeks. Morning Consult keeps up with approval ratings by state. In Florida, Trump’s approval rating is currently a net +2%. Meaning that in general there’s a slight advantage for issues advanced by the President and theoretically those who support them. In other words, it appears as though Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott should have a bit of a tail wind from all of this statewide.

 

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