2020 Reality Check – Why Trump’s the solid favorite
Bottom Line: My sensibilities are insulted every day intellectually by the dearth of credible reporting in news media but also by the lack of high-quality analysis. It’s endlessly sad that discredited “experts” like Nate Silver who couldn’t have been more wrong with his predictions in 2016 are still treated as eminently qualified and credible. Near daily I receive questions about this Democrat candidate or that one and what it might mean or who Trump might fare best against etc. For political junkies I get it. Candidly, it’s not even a consideration on my radar day-to-day at this point and probably shouldn’t be for you either. The cycle will be long enough without getting into the weeds with the MSM already. But on back of additional questions and thoughts with Michael Bloomberg’s non-candidacy announcement yesterday here’s a reminder that I first offered up to you on October 18th last year about why President Trump will likely be re-elected:
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
So, whomever runs from the left will be at a historical disadvantage from the onset. Something that’s often overlooked by media and those who oppose an incumbent President is what it would take for someone who voted for the President previously not to vote for them again. It has happened of course. George H.W. Bush’s “read my lips no new taxes” promise that he broke led to Ross Perot running, splitting the vote and allowing Bill Clinton to win. Or in the case of a Jimmy Carter failing at pretty much everything allowing Ronald Reagan to win. But if one voted for Donald Trump in 2016, why wouldn’t they vote for him in 2020? Two Supreme Court Justices, tax reform, end of ACA mandate, lowest unemployment rate in 49 years, record low unemployment rates for all demographics except for white men, biggest increase in net take home pay in 32 years, significant foreign policy progress including the near eradication of ISIS.
Arguably, he’s in a better position to win new voters over as opposed to losing previous support. That’ll be the key to 2020. Not who the Democratic candidate happens to be but how we view President Trump’s performance by the election.