How accurate is the AccuWeather hurricane forecast? Here’s the answer
Bottom Line: The cynic in me still would like to see the meteorology industry nail the same day forecast before convincing me to take a hurricane forecast serious months in advance, but then again, there is a science to it (that’s different than the same day forecast). Also, after two years of being hard hit in Florida we’re more inclined to pay attention to anything that provides some insight into what we might need to prepare for this year. Here’s the deal on AccuWeather’s hurricane forecast. If you grade on a curve it was pretty accurate.
Last year their forecast predicted:
- 12-15 Tropical storms (actual 15)
- 6-8 hurricanes (actual 8)
- 3-5 major hurricanes (actual 2)
- 3-4 US landfalls (actual 5)
Not bad as far as forecasting goes. So, what’s their 2019 outlook calling for?
- 12-14 Tropical storms
- 5-7 hurricanes
- 2-4 major hurricanes
The good news is that they’re predicting every category to be slightly lower. The less than ideal news is that the mid-point of their forecasting is still slightly above average. And yes, everyone always says it only takes one which is true, but fewer systems mean fewer chances of having that one impact you. While hurricane season doesn’t “officially” start until June it’s worth a reminder that for four consecutive years we’ve had our first named storms, and last year first landfall, in May.