2020 Political Party update – More Republicans than Democrats post-Mueller
Bottom Line: There’s been a lot of attention paid to the President’s approval ratings in the wake of the Muller Report release. Just as you’d generally expect with a report that found no crime being committed by the president after two years of investigation, to the extent we’ve seen an impact, it’s generally been higher approval. This has included generally being at 50% or higher with likely voters – a surefire ticket to 2020 success if it holds near those levels heading into the election. What hasn’t been discussed is how the Muller Report might impact the party landscape generally.
Gallup conducts a monthly polling average of party ID (and has for over 15 years). Whether you think it’s completely accurate or not the overall ongoing averages provide a clue into changes in the political landscape that go beyond the President himself. This month’s update provides fairly significant moves post-Muller Report.
Here’s the pre-Muller Report read from March:
- DEM: 30%
- GOP: 26%
- INDY: 42%
And here’s where we are today:
- DEM: 26% (-4)
- GOP: 27% (+1)
- INDY: 44% (+2)
(There are rounding errors involved which is why gains aren’t completely equal to losses)
What’s more is what happens when you compare to a year a goat this time. Since then these are the changes
- DEM: -3%
- GOP: +3
- INDY: 44% (-1)
When you’ve got sequential and year-over-year changes breaking a particular direction,there’s bigger story playing out over time. It makes sense that many previously IDing Democrats would ID as independents rather than Republicans. It’s not generally natural to swing directly from one political party to another just like that...but here are a couple of takeaways I can pull out of this info. Republicans lead Democrats in identification for just the 2nd time in over a year and Republicans, not just President Trump, are benefiting post-Muller Report.