Immigration Update – The 1-million-person ICE deportation plan
Bottom Line: Monday night President Trump Tweeted the following:
Next week ICE will begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens who have illicitly found their way into the United States. They will be removed as fast as they come in. Mexico, using their strong immigration laws, is doing a very good job of stopping people...........long before they get to our Southern Border. Guatemala is getting ready to sign a Safe-Third Agreement. The only ones who won’t do anything are the Democrats in Congress. They must vote to get rid of the loopholes, and fix asylum! If so, Border Crisis will end quickly!
That information was compelling but lacked clarity on specifics introducing more questions than answers. First on the illegal immigration topic. Yesterday we received some answers. ICE is specifically set to target one million illegal immigrants which have already been processed by the courts and issued final deportation orders by the legal system. Many will likely be surprised that there are a million or more illegal immigrants that have been processed through our legal system and ordered to be deported but haven’t been. This is all part of a bigger story that combines the issues of “catch and release” programs along with “sanctuary cities” and the overall overwhelming of the system that’s been taking place for two years now. What’s still unclear is where these illegal immigrants are located. ICE didn’t provide specific breakouts as to the locations, which makes sense as you might imagine additional efforts might be taken to continue to evade the law if they were specific, but you’d imagine that anyone who’s been ordered for deportation but has continued to thumb their nose at our laws is likely nervous and on notice.
The Guatemalan development is interesting for two reasons. First, with Mexico enforcing their southern border as part of the agreement with the Trump administration to avoid tariffs, the government has reason to seek a broader solution with the US and Mexico. Second, Guatemala just completed a first round of elections and a run-off Presidential election is set to take place in August. Guatemala’s Interior Minister confirmed talks with the US on immigration policy and agreed reform is needed. Though no deal appeared imminent – it's a hot button election issue in the country and the runoff August elections at a minimum could provide a catalyst for change. The runoff election is between a “Social Democrat” mired in a potential corruption scandal and a doctor running in the “Let’s Go” conservative party.