President Trump’s 2020 reelection outlook
Bottom Line: Day in and day out we’re already being inundated with 2020 polling. Polling that generally suggests that anyone who runs for President opposite Donald Trump would win. Of course, there’s only one thing wrong with it. Everything. There’s not a single 2020 poll that’s credible or predictive. By definition, they can’t be. Not one of them is currently running against Donald Trump. None of them have made it that far yet and until they’ve reached that point of vetting and taken the bruises and bumps that come with the territory, there’s no effective way to evaluate head-to-head match-ups. There is however, a willing main stream media more than excited to parrot fake news polling with zero historical predictive capability. For comparison’s sake at this time four years ago every Republican challenger trailed Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head polling with Marco Rubio “losing best” by four points. Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton four years ago by 18 points in the same nonsensical polling. As for the Q poll just out being gleefully bandied about... They’ve proven to be the least credible polling outlet for multiple cycles now. How bad has it been for them?
In 2016 they had Hillary Clinton in a blowout victory nationwide. Their final polling was off by 5.5% nationally in a poll that had a 3.5% margin of error. What does that tell you about the validity of their polling? But wait there’s more. They had Andrew Gillum winning by 7% last fall in Florida with a 3.5% margin of error. In other words, not only are their polls not credible, they’ve actually been getting worse not better. Anyone who wants to bet me that Joe Biden, who I don’t think will be the Democrat’s candidate, will beat Donald Trump in Florida by nine points. Name your price. I’ll take your bet right now. Quinnipiac is the worst national pollster in the business and has been for years. In polls that do hold some comparative weight consider these as President Trump embarks on his re-election bid:
- President Obama Approval – June 2011 – 46% - Won
- President Bush Approval – June 2003 – 63% - Won
- President Clinton Approval – June 1995 – 46% - Won
- President Bush Approval – June 1991 – 72% - Lost
- President Reagan Approval – June 1983 – 43% - Won
- President Carter Approval – June 1979 – 29% - Lost
President Trump Approval – June 2019 – 44%?
In summary the President with the highest average approval rating at this stage in his Presidency, George H.W. Bush lost his re-election bid. President Reagan with a lower average approval rating than President Trump won 49 states. Any questions?