Florida Voter Registration Update
Bottom Line: A common theme I've discussed entering the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. For example, with greater than 90% of news coverage (according to the Media Research Center) of President Trump’s administration being negative, you might think he’s hugely unpopular. The reality is that most recently his average approval ratings are near the highs for his administration. Here at home in Florida, there might be a different version of a similar thing. Contrast the generally critical coverage of the Trump administration with what we witnessed last week with the cattle call of 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates coming through South Florida and it’s telling. About a month ago I provided my first voter registration update for Florida for the 2020 cycle and it was compelling given the high-profile efforts, like Andrew Gillum’s, to boost Democrat registration in Florida in advance of next year’s election cycle.
In the previous update the results in year over year voter registration by party provided potential storylines that don’t match the news coverage. For example, Republicans, minor parties and NPA’s all gained in voter registration year over year while Democrats dropped nearly 14,000 registered voters over the same period.
What’s changed in the past month? Quite a bit actually... Pulling the latest Florida voter registration totals we see the following year over year changes
This continues to paint a clear picture confirming longer term trends in Florida. Not registering to any political party continues to be the largest growing block of voters in the state while minor parties are the fastest growing segment. But what’s most telling is that while Democrats remain the only block of registered voters that continue to demonstrate year over year declines in voter registration in Florida. In fact, Democrats now hold their lowest registration advantage in Florida’s history.
Historically Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. Most recently Florida’s candidates have – with Democratic Socialist Andrew Gillum being the most notable example to date. While that might attract a passion among the most radical elements in the Democrat’s base, it’s still vastly out of the mainstream with Florida’s voters. Ironically enough, having Andrew Gillum head up a voter registration campaign for Democrats may cause others to continue to feel that they need to leave the party because the party has left them. TBC...