Weekly political update – Where news & perceptions meet reality

Weekly political update – Where news & perceptions meet reality

Bottom Line: This is your weekly reality check. What's really going on with public opinion of the president and our view of the direction of the country? Here it is...

  • Trump's lowest rating: 37% approval (8/4/17)            
  • Trump highest approval rating: 45% approval (6/7/19)                   
  • Trump's current rating: 44% approval

In the lead up to this week’s Mueller testimony President Trump’s average approval rating slipped a point to 44%. It’s still within a point of his highest average rating but, perhaps importantly, doesn’t reflect what public opinion is in the wake of the Mueller testimony. Given that there are more new questions about Robert Mueller than Donald Trump after the testimony, one might imagine that to the extent public opinion of the president might be impacted, it’d be positive for Trump. Also, as it’s easy to forget what was happening while these polls were taking place. These reflect the “fallout” from the tweets about the “Squad” members. Clearly most Americans weren’t swayed from their previous opinions of the president as the media’s/left’s latest effort paint President Trump as racist also seems to have mostly fallen flat. 

With the 2020 Democrats officially in the primary cycle, more attention will be paid to the president’s performance and you’ll doubtlessly hear many hypothetical match-ups going forward. Remember that for now, none of them are predictive and won’t be until the primary process has concluded. What is instructive is a president’s relative strength throughout the process. Presidential election cycles with incumbent presidents running for re-election are mostly a referendum on their performance. 

It’s been the case throughout his term thus far, that the more informed and engaged someone is politically, the more likely they are to approve of President Trump. That remains the case once again this week. 

  • Adult only samples averaged: N/A             
  • Registered voters: 43%                                              
  • Likely voters: 48%         

What you never hear reported are the ratings of the Democratic leaders opposing him. Let’s just say they’d need a huge push of support to simply catch President Trump’s approval ratings. Here’s the latest...  

  • Pelosi: 37% 
  • Schumer: 28%

What does that tell you about what’s really going on in this country? Pelosi trails President Trump’s approval by seven points and Schumer by 16. It’s not exactly as though people are picking up what they’re putting down.

Looking at the direction of the country this week...                              

Where we stood on Inauguration Day:      

  • Right Direction: 30%                                                                                                           


  • Right Direction: 37%                                             

Overall, we’re 7% collectively more optimistic than we were during the Obama administration.

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