Hurricane Season update – the year was 1982
Bottom Line: Coming into this hurricane season experts coalesced around one general prediction for this year. It would be an average hurricane season. Here we are having entered peak hurricane season (the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September) and thankfully it’s been anything but. A peak out into the Atlantic also shows that conditions aren’t favorable for development anytime for at least the next week or so. We’ll take it. So, how is this season which hasn’t featured a hurricane in five weeks and has produced only one for the year comparing to years gone by? The last time we had this little activity at this point in the hurricane season was 1982 according to Colorado State University. If that comp holds its great news for this year and potentially for next.
In 82’ we had only 6 named storms for the season, two hurricanes and one major. That’s a hurricane season that’s half of what’s normal and it left Florida alone. The following year we had a record low 4 named storms for the season. As we wait out this season hoping for similar success there are a couple of encouraging thoughts. First, while it only takes one, fewer storms mean fewer opportunities for the one, and two, the tropics have had patterns over time that produce similar results. We hear about the El Nino and La Nina effects for example and much of that type of data is what the scientists use in their models.
Thus far we’ve been fortunate to enter peak season with only three named storms and one hurricane. The good news is it looks like the predictions of an average season are unlikely to be correct. The even better news is if this season turns out to match the one it most resembles from 1982.