Dorian and the difference a day makes - Updated
Bottom Line: If you’ve lived in South Florida for a while you know hurricane forecasting has been improving. If you’re newer to South Florida, know that hurricane forecasting has improved. It’s far from an exact science as the National Hurricane Center meteorologists are quick to point out but it is an improving science. In recent years it’s not just that the cone of uncertainty has become smaller, it’s that forecasting has generally become more accurate. It goes without saying that the longer range the forecast, the greater the uncertainty. But what’s the difference a day makes in forecasting? About 40 miles. I’ll explain.
Naturally the five-day forecast introduces the greatest uncertainty but even then, it’s pretty good these days. By the numbers...
- 67% of the time the system travels through the cone of uncertainty
- The margin of error is 210 miles
Now what does that 210 miles represent? Five days out the average storm passes 210 miles from the center of the projected path. As you see Dorian’s cone essentially covering the entire state of Florida here’s some perspective. It’s 350 miles from Miami to Jacksonville. Now what kind of difference does a day make? NHC’s accuracy improves about 40 miles per day. So, here’s the breakdown
- Four days out: 170 miles of variance - This is where we are as of this entry
- Three days out 130 miles of variance
- Two days out 90 miles of variance
- One day out 50 miles of variance
For perspective on the 50 miles, that’s about the distance from Miami to Boca. That’s pretty darn good about a day out.